Sunday, March 20, 2022

Mariupol: Ukraine rejects Russian offer to surrender port city

Pro-Russian forces in Mariupol outskirtsImage source, Reuters
Image caption,
Shelling by Russian forces has prevented civilians from being able to evacuate the besieged port city

Ukraine has rejected a Russian ultimatum offering people in the besieged city of Mariupol safe passage out of the port if they surrender.

Under Russia's proposal, civilians would be allowed to leave if the city's defenders laid down arms.

But Ukraine has refused, saying there was no question of it surrendering the strategic port city.

Around 300,000 people are believed to be trapped there with supplies running out and aid blocked from entering.

Residents have endured weeks of Russian bombardment with no power or running water.

Details of the Russian proposal were laid out on Sunday by Gen Mikhail Mizintsev, who said Ukraine had until 05:00 Moscow time (02:00 GMT) on Monday morning to accept its terms.

Under the plans, Russian troops would have opened safe corridors out of Mariupol from 10:00 Moscow time (07:00 GMT), initially for Ukrainian troops and "foreign mercenaries" to disarm and leave the city.

After two hours, Russian forces say they would then have allowed humanitarian convoys with food, medicine and other supplies to enter the city safely, once the de-mining of the roads was complete.

Russian Gen Mizintsev admitted that a terrible humanitarian catastrophe was unfolding there - and said the offer would have allowed civilians to flee safely to either the east or west.

In response to the offer, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said Ukraine would not stop defending Mariupol.

"There can be no question of any surrender, laying down of arms," she was quoted by Ukrainska Pravda as saying.

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Earlier on Sunday, Pyotr Andryushenko, who is an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, vowed the city's defenders would fight on.

"We will fight until the last of our soldiers," he said.

He told the BBC's Newshour that Moscow's humanitarian promises could not be trusted, and repeated unconfirmed claims made by Mariupol officials in recent days that Russian forces have been forcibly evacuating some of its residents to Russia.

"When they [Russian forces] say about humanitarian corridors, what do they really do? They really force evacuate our people to Russia," Andryushenko said.

The BBC has not been able to verify these accusations.

Mariupol is a key strategic target for Russia and has seen some of the invasion's deadliest fighting.

Russian troops have encircled the city over the past few weeks, trapping its residents inside without access to electricity, water or gas.

Communication with civilians unable to leave is limited but food and medical supplies are believed to be running out and Russia has blocked any humanitarian aid from getting in.

Media caption,
Watch: Survivors from the bombardment of Mariupol are receiving treatment nearby in the city of Zaporizhzhia

Since the invasion began the port city has witnessed some of the most intense fighting in all of Ukraine, with Russian forces so far failing to take the city from its defenders.

According to one estimate, 90% of the city's buildings have been damaged or destroyed in attacks since the war began three weeks ago, and authorities say at least 2,500 people have been killed although the true figure may be higher.

After last week's destruction of a theatre where more than 1,000 people were sheltering, on Sunday authorities in Mariupol said that an arts school with 400 people inside has also been attacked.

Civilian with bike in MariupolImage source, Anadolu Agency
Image caption,
Mariupol's mayor Vadym Boichenko has told the BBC that street fighting has now reached the city's centre

Previous efforts to evacuate Mariupol's civilians have been blocked by Russian fire, although local authorities say that thousands have been able to leave in private vehicles.

On Sunday, the Ukrainian deputy prime minister said 3,985 people had fled from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia, adding that on Monday the government plans on sending about 50 buses to pick up further evacuees from the city.

President Volodomyr Zelensky has said the Russian siege amounts to a "war crime".

"This is a totally deliberate tactic," he said. "They [Russian forces] have a clear order to do absolutely everything to make the humanitarian catastrophe in Ukrainian cities an 'argument' for Ukrainians to cooperate with the occupiers".

The location of the port city, on the Sea of Azov, makes it a strategic target for Russia, as it would help it create a land corridor between the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

 

Ukraine war: Boris Johnson sparks fury after comparison to Brexit

Boris Johnson has been criticised for comparing the struggle of Ukrainians fighting Russia's invasion to people in Britain voting for Brexit.

In a speech he said Britons, like Ukrainians, had the instinct "to choose freedom" and cited the 2016 vote to leave the EU as a "recent example".

The comments have caused anger among politicians both in the UK and Europe.

Donald Tusk, the former president of the European Council, called the comments offensive.

Conservative peer Lord Barwell said voting in a referendum was not "in any way comparable with risking your life" in a war, while Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said it was an "insult" to Ukrainians.

The row comes as the prime minister strongly urged China to condemn the Russian invasion in an interview with the Sunday Times. He suggested Beijing was having "second thoughts" about its neutral stance.

Mr Johnson likened the Ukrainians' fight to Brexit in a speech to the Conservative Party's spring conference in Blackpool on Saturday.

He said: "I know that it's the instinct of the people of this country, like the people of Ukraine, to choose freedom, every time. I can give you a couple of famous recent examples.

"When the British people voted for Brexit in such large, large numbers, I don't believe it was because they were remotely hostile to foreigners.

"It's because they wanted to be free to do things differently and for this country to be able to run itself."

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Mr Johnson also cited as an example British people choosing to get vaccinated against coronavirus because they "wanted to get on with their lives" and "were fed up with being told what to do by people like me".

But his remarks, intended to rally the Tory faithful, attracted criticism from political figures in the UK and Europe.

Mr Tusk tweeted "Boris, your words offend Ukrainians, the British and common sense", while Guy Verhofstadt, the former Belgian prime minister and the European Parliament's chief Brexit negotiator, said the comparison was "insane".

Asked about Mr Johnson linking the plight of Ukraine to Brexit, Chancellor Rishi Sunak told the BBC's Sunday Morning programme: "I don't think the prime minister was making a direct comparison between these two things - clearly they're not directly analogous."

"He was making some general observations about people's desire for freedom," he added.

Mr Sunak said the prime minister had been galvanising global opinion to send a strong message to Vladimir Putin, and "that's the thing we should be focused on".

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves called for the prime minister to withdraw his comments and apologise.

She told the BBC: "The people of Ukraine, who are fighting for their lives - in any way to draw a parallel to voting to leave the European Union, it is shameless."

She pointed out that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wanted to join the EU - and that "he clearly sees no such parallel".

Lord Barwell, who served as Theresa May's chief of staff in No 10, said: "Apart from the bit where voting in a free and fair referendum isn't in any way comparable with risking your life to defend your country against invasion, and the awkward fact the Ukrainians are fighting for the freedom to join the EU, this comparison is bang on."

Ukraine applied for fast-track membership of the European Union last month, shortly after the Russian invasion.

Mr Zelensky said on Friday he had spoken to the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and expected progress to be made on its application in the coming months.

Others who criticised Mr Johnson's comments included Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood, chair of the defence select committee, who tweeted: "Comparing the Ukrainian people's fight against Putin's tyranny to the British people voting for Brexit damages the standard of statecraft we were beginning to exhibit."

The Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed called the prime minister a "national embarrassment", adding: "To compare a referendum to women and children fleeing Putin's bombs is an insult to every Ukrainian. He is no Churchill: he is Basil Fawlty."

SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford said Mr Johnson's comments were "crass and distasteful".

Speak out, Johnson tells China

Meanwhile in his interview with the Times, Mr Johnson has urged China to join in the global condemnation of Vladimir Putin's invasion.

He warned Beijing that supporting Russia was akin to choosing the wrong side in World War Two, describing it as a battle between good and evil.

Mr Johnson told the paper that he believed some in Xi Jinping's administration were having "second thoughts" about the neutral stance adopted by Beijing.

It comes just a few days after the US warned China that it would face consequences if it helped Russia evade sanctions.

"As time goes on, and as the number of Russian atrocities mounts up, I think it becomes steadily more difficult and politically embarrassing for people either actively or passively to condone Putin's invasion," Mr Johnson said.

"There are considerable dilemmas now for people who thought they could sit this one out, who thought they could sit on the fence."

 

Saturday, March 19, 2022

Ukraine war: Western agents seek to get inside Putin's head

Russian President Vladimir Putin in Samolva villiage outside of Pskov, Russia. 11 September 2021,Image source, Getty Images

Russia's leader Vladimir Putin is trapped in a closed world of his own making, Western spies believe. And that worries them.

For years they have sought to get inside Mr Putin's mind, to better understand his intentions.

With Russian troops seemingly bogged down in Ukraine, the need to do so has become all the more necessary as they try to work out how he will react under pressure.

Understanding his state of mind will be vital to avoid escalating the crisis into even more dangerous territory.

There has been speculation that Russia's leader was ill, but many analysts believe he has actually become isolated and closed off to any alternative views.

His isolation has been evident in pictures of his meetings, such as when he met President Emmanuel Macron. the pair at far ends of a long table. It was also evident in Mr Putin's meeting with his own national security team on the eve of war.

Mr Putin's initial military plan looked like something devised by a KGB officer, one western intelligence official explains.

It had been created, they say, by a tight "conspiratorial cabal" with an emphasis on secrecy. But the result was chaos. Russian military commanders were not ready and some soldiers went over the border without knowing what they were doing.

Single decision maker

Western spies, through sources they will not discuss, knew more about those plans than many inside Russia's leadership. But now they face a new challenge - understanding what Russia's leader will do next. And that is not easy.

"The challenge of understanding the Kremlin's moves is that Putin is the single decision-maker in Moscow," explains John Sipher, who formerly ran the CIA's Russia operations. And even though his views are often made clear through public statements knowing how he will act on them is a difficult intelligence challenge.

"It is extremely hard in a system as well protected as Russia to have good intelligence on what's happening inside the head of the leader especially when so many of his own people do not know what is going on," Sir John Sawers, a former head of Britain's MI6, told the BBC.

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on economic issues at the Kremlin in Moscow on February 28, 2022Image source, SPUTNIK / AFP
Image caption,
Isolated - President Putin chairs a meeting in February 2022

Mr Putin, intelligence officials say, is isolated in a bubble of his own making, which very little outside information penetrates, particularly any which might challenge what he thinks.

"He is a victim of his own propaganda in the sense that he only listens to a certain number of people and blocks out everything else. This gives him a strange view of the world," says Adrian Furnham, a professor of psychology and co-author of a forthcoming book The Psychology of Spies and Spying. The risk is what is called "group think" in which everyone reinforces his view. "If he's a victim of group think we need to know who the group is," says Prof Furnham.

The circle of those Mr Putin talks to has never been large but when it came to the decision to invade Ukraine, it had narrowed to just a handful of people, Western intelligence officials believe, all of those "true believers" who share Mr Putin's mindset and obsessions.

The sense of how small his inner circle has become was emphasised when he publicly dressed down the head of his own Foreign Intelligence Service at the national security meeting just before the invasion - a move which seemed to humiliate the official. His speech hours later also revealed a man angry and obsessed with Ukraine and the West.

Those who have observed him say the Russian leader is driven by a desire to overcome the perceived humiliation of Russia in the 1990s along with a conviction that the West is determined to keep Russia down and drive him from power. One person who met Mr Putin remembers his obsession with watching videos of the Col Gaddafi being killed after he was driven from power in 2011.

A man looks at TV sets, broadcasting live the annual press conference of the Russian President Vladimir Putin in an electronics store in Moscow. 31 January 2006.Image source, DENIS SINYAKOV

When the director of the CIA, William Burns, was asked to assess Mr Putin's mental state, he said he had "been stewing in a combustible combination of grievance and ambition for many years" and described his views as having "hardened" and that he was "far more insulated" from other points of view.

Is the Russian president crazy? That is a question many in the West have asked. But few experts consider it helpful. One psychologist with expertise in the area said a mistake was to assume because we cannot understand a decision like invading Ukraine we frame the person who made it as "mad".

The CIA has a team which carries out "leadership analysis" on foreign decision makers, drawing on a tradition dating back to attempts to understand Hitler. They study background, relationships and health, drawing on secret intelligence.

Another source are read-outs from the those who have had direct contact, such as other leaders. In 2014, Angela Merkel reportedly told President Obama that Mr Putin was living "in another world". President Macron meanwhile when he sat down with Mr Putin recently, was reported to have found the Russian leader "more rigid, more isolated" compared with previous encounters.

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets French President Emmanuel Macron on 7 February 2022 in Moscow, Russia.Image source, Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
Image caption,
Presidents Putin and Macron in Moscow recently

Did something change? Some speculate, without much evidence, about possible ill-health or the impact of medication. Others point to psychological factors such as a sense of his own time running out for him to fulfil what he sees as his destiny in protecting Russia or restoring its greatness. The Russian leader has visibly isolated himself from others during the Covid pandemic and this also may have had a psychological impact.

"Putin is likely not mentally ill, nor he has changed, although he is in more of a hurry, and likely more isolated in recent years," says Ken Dekleva, a former US government physician and diplomat, and currently a senior fellow at the George HW Bush Foundation for US-China Relations.

But a concern now is that reliable information is still not finding its way into Mr Putin's closed loop. His intelligence services may have been reluctant before the invasion to tell him anything he did not want to hear, offering rosy estimates of how an invasion would go and how Russian troops would be received before the war. And this week one Western official said Mr Putin may still not have the insight into how badly things are going for his own troops that Western intelligence has. That leads to concern about how he might react when confronted with a worsening situation for Russia.

Madman theory

Mr Putin himself tells the story of chasing a rat when he was a boy. When he had driven it into a corner, the rat reacted by attacking him, forcing a young Vladimir to become the one who fled. The question Western policymakers are asking is what if Mr Putin feels cornered now?

"The question really is whether or not he doubles down with greater brutality and escalates in terms of the weapon systems that he's prepared to use," said one western official. There have been concerns he could use chemical weapons or even a tactical nuclear weapon.

"The worry is that he does something unbelievably rash in a vicious press-the button way," says Adrian Furnham.

Mr Putin himself may play up the sense that he is dangerous or even irrational - this is a well-known tactic (often called the "madman" theory) in which someone with access to nuclear weapons tries to get his adversary to back down by convincing them that he may well be crazy enough to use them despite the potential for everyone to perish.

For Western spies and policymakers understanding Mr Putin's intentions and mindset today could not be more important. Predicting his response is pivotal in working out how far they can push him without triggering a dangerous reaction.

"Putin's self concept does not allow for failure or weakness. He despises such things" says Ken Dekleva. "A cornered, weakened Putin is a more dangerous Putin. It's sometimes better let the bear run out of the cage and back to the forest."

Russian President Vladimir Putin carrying a hunting rifle in the Republic of Tuva, 15 August 2007.Image source, AFP
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Friday, March 18, 2022

Zelensky: 130 people have been rescued from bombed Mariupol theater, but hundreds still under the rubble

Debris is seen after a theater was damaged by shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine on March 17.
Debris is seen after a theater was damaged by shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine on March 17. (Azov Battalion/AP)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that 130 people have been rescued from the bombed theater in the city of Mariupol so far.

Hundreds of people were taking shelter at the theater when it was bombed on Wednesday.

Speaking on Ukrainian TV, Zelensky said that rescue operations are continuing at the site despite the difficulties.

However, hundreds of people are still under the rubble in Mariupol, Zelensky added.

Earlier on Friday, officials from the Donetsk region and Kyiv said they had no further update on how many people had survived the attack. On Thursday, Ukraine’s human rights commissioner Liudmyla Denisova said there was no update on figures released, which reported 130 people rescued from a total of 1,300 people believed to have been sheltering in the building.

Zelensky also warned that it will be Western leaders’ moral defeat if Ukraine does not receive advanced weapons.

“We still have no missile defense. We do not have enough fighter planes,” Zelensky said.

“We shall call even louder on certain Western leaders and remind them that this will be their moral defeat if Ukraine does not receive the advanced weapons that will save the lives of thousands of our people,” Zelensky continued.

“Russian missiles are not going to be defeated by certain hunting guns that they are trying to sell us sometimes,” he said.

On Ukraine’s bid to become a member of the European Union, Zelensky said, “We will become a full member of the EU and every civil servant is working towards this 24/7.”

 

53 min ago

US ambassador says Russia's "disinformation is a sign of its desperation"

From CNN's Laura Ly

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield delivers a statement at the United Nations Security Council meeting on Friday, March 18.
US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield delivers a statement at the United Nations Security Council meeting on Friday, March 18. (Jason DeCrow/AP)

United States Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield slammed Russia's attempts to lie about allegations of biological weapons in Ukraine once again Friday morning. 

"As I said one week ago, Ukraine does not have a biological weapons program. There are no Ukrainian biological weapons laboratories – not near Russia’s border, not anywhere. There are only public health facilities, proudly, and I say proudly, supported and recognized by the US government, the World Health Organization, and other governments and international institutions," Thomas-Greenfield said in prepared remarks to the UN Security Council. 

Ukrainian and US officials have repeatedly debunked claims of US-supported biological programs in Ukraine. 

Friday's emergency session was called by Russia after they announced Thursday that they would not call for a vote on their humanitarian draft resolution on Ukraine. 

Thomas-Greenfield instead said "it is Russia that has a well-documented history of using chemical weapons" and that Friday's meeting is 'the result of their isolation on this Council and on the world stage." 

"We aren’t going to dignify Russia’s disinformation or conspiracy theories," Thomas-Greenfield said. "I will not repeat the slurs and false accusations that Russia has hurled against the Ukrainian people and the United States repeatedly at this table. But we know that Russia’s disinformation is a sign of its desperation. That’s the truth, and we will continue to ensure the world sees it and hears it."

Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia claimed Friday that new details show evidence of US-supported biological weapons in Ukraine. 

"Over the last week, new details have come to light which allows to state that the components for biological weapons were being created on the territory of Ukraine," Nebenzia said in translated remarks to the council. "We can see that the American colleagues were not helping, as they claim, the Ukrainian Ministry of Health, but rather the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense."

Nebenzia claimed that a new document distributed to the council Friday morning "confirms direct funding and supervision of the Pentagon and its defense threat reduction agency of military and biological projects in Ukraine." 

"The representative of the US State Department continue to muddle the information and ascertain that US allegedly does not operate in any biological laboratories in the territory of Ukraine, but the facts show otherwise," the Russian ambassador claimed. 

More context: There are US-funded biolabs in Ukraine, but they are not building bioweapons. Actually, it's the opposite: Part of the reason for their creation was to secure old Soviet weapons left behind in the former Soviet republics. The State Department has described the claims as nonsense — and the US and Ukrainian governments have repeatedly, and for years now, tried to bat down conspiracy theories about the labs and spoken about the work that is actually being done in them.

Russia's falsehoods about labs like this have not been limited to Ukraine, and the country has been pushing various bits of disinformation about the US and biological weapons since the Cold War.

 

US sets the stage for contentious Biden call with China's Xi

Blunt US rhetoric heading into President Joe Biden's call with Chinese President Xi Jinping suggested that a meeting of the minds on Russia's brutality in Ukraine was unlikely, and reflects the current bitter tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Biden and Xi spoke for nearly two hours Friday, according to the White House, with the US setting the stage for a stern warning that Chinese firms would pay a serious price if the Beijing government heeds Russian President Vladimir Putin's pleas for military and economic aid. The call found the US surmounting one of its deepest-set foreign policy fears -- risking an open clash with China while simultaneously facing down Russia -- in another extraordinary geopolitical shuffle triggered by the Ukraine war. It also put Biden in the odd position of seeking the tacit cooperation of the nation seen as America's most powerful rising foe to suppress its historic Cold War rival of the second half of the 20th century.
Given that China is known for ruthlessly pursuing its own interests and has no interest in shoring up the Western-led world order that Putin is seeking to buckle, it seems fanciful that Xi will choose what the US sees as the right side of history on the Ukraine conflict -- at least until its own economic self-interest dictates a change of course. And US-China relations are so toxic that many analysts had been predicting a new Cold War in the Pacific between the rivals, before the original version reignited in Europe with Putin's invasion of Ukraine at the end of last month.
The theatrics of a call that was closely watched around the world cannot be dismissed. Just by holding the conversation, and publicizing it heavily beforehand, Biden sent a signal to Putin that his "no limits" friendship forged with Xi in Beijing shortly before the invasion may not be as significant as the Russian leader had hoped. The conversation also fosters an impression that Washington sees China as the key global power other than itself -- instead of Moscow.
It comes as a surprisingly swift and effective Western and international front has clamped a devastating economic, banking, cultural, sporting and diplomatic boycott on Russia. Any significant help from China for Russia could, therefore, be hugely valuable to Putin, possibly allowing him to offset some of the isolation and economic blight in his country and sustain his brutal Ukraine war longer.
Two US officials told CNN this week that Russia had asked China for military support, including drones, as well as economic assistance following the invasion. The US also informed allies in Asia and Europe in a diplomatic cable that China has expressed some openness to offering such help. Both Russia and China have denied that there have been any such requests.
Any pledge from Xi not to break international sanctions on Russia would be seen as a major victory for Biden, though it's possible the Chinese would seek concessions from the US for such a move -- possibly over Trump-era tariffs.

A tough warning for China

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday offered a robust preview of the call, saying that "China will bear responsibility for any actions it takes to support Russia's aggression," and that the US "will not hesitate to impose costs" on China if it does so.
His comments were a barely disguised hint that Chinese firms could face secondary sanctions if the government in Beijing offers aid to Moscow. That would be a concern for Xi's government given the current slowing of China's traditionally soaring growth rates and the economic consequences of the latest Covid-19 surge. The US President may have some leverage since Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares on Monday that China was not a party to the conflict and "still less wants to be affected by the sanctions," according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
Xi's government has attempted to adopt a delicate balance throughout the Ukraine crisis.
It has a clear interest in Putin's attempt to use the conflict to weaken democracy, the West and the rule of international law. And if the United States is bogged down for years in Europe, it could frustrate Washington's goal of pivoting military, intelligence and diplomatic resources to Asia to deal with broader consequences of China's rise.
But China's long-term economic interests are also at risk if the Ukraine war sends the global economy into reverse. So Beijing has sought to create a diplomatic middle ground, refraining from criticizing Putin but seeking to avoid going to a point of no return with the US -- and its significant trading partners in the European Union.
While China has not formally condemned the invasion, Xi did stress the situation was "worrisome," that China was "deeply grieved" by the war and that it would "work actively" to support a peaceful settlement. Those comments came in a video call with French and German leaders last week, Xinhua reported.
Beijing also endorsed comments made by its ambassador to Ukraine, Fan Xianrong, that were quoted in a press release from the Lviv regional government. "China will never attack Ukraine. We will help, especially economically," Fan said in comments that appear incompatible with any possible Chinese military aid to Putin's war effort.
But in line with a desire to discredit the US, China's media has also amplified false Russian propaganda that Washington had funded biological weapons labs in Ukraine. The conspiracies are seen by Washington as a possible precursor to a "false flag" event that Moscow might use as a ruse to deploy such weapons.
The Biden White House is making the case that China's straddle on the war is unsustainable. The issue appeared to have been the subject of tough exchanges on Ukraine during a seven-hour meeting in Rome this week between US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese foreign policy chief Yang Jiechi in Rome, which the US side describes as "intense."
Biden's call on Friday was expected to be equally frank.
"This is an opportunity for President Biden to assess where President Xi stands," White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Thursday, promising that her boss would be "candid" and "direct" on the call.

What could change China's mind?

Robust US rhetoric running up to the telephone call, which almost verges on scolding of China, would not seem likely to improve the chances of a successful conversation. Xi, who has adopted an increasingly nationalistic and belligerent tone in foreign policy, is unlikely to want to seem to be bowing to US pressure. The American rhetoric might also reflect the tense nature of most of the contacts between the Biden administration and China so far in the US President's term. And it may be indicative of low expectations in the White House of success on the call following Sullivan's reception in Rome.
Beijing is showing every sign of trying to keep its options open and avoiding committing itself beyond its own area of interests.
"I think there is a mismatch in the views about what the optics are," said Scott Kennedy, trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "Either you are with Russia or you are with Ukraine and the rest of the world" is one view, Scott said but, "I think China's view is that there is a third path, an unaligned path."
Still, the longer the war drags on, the harder China's choices could get, and it might find itself forced to adopt a tougher stand toward Moscow -- one that could make Xi's new friendship with Putin look like a strategic error.
In the long term, China has little to gain from a prolonged economic crunch because of the war. While it has a strong trading relationship with Russia, the value of its exports to the United States and the European Union are worth many times more in dollar value. And Chinese growth prospects are intertwined with the American and European economies in a way that gives the West leverage if it were to sanction China for aiding Moscow's war effort.
Years of higher crude prices could also hurt China's oil-thirsty manufacturing sector. And the current year is also an important one for Xi, who is set to secure a third term at the Community Party's National Congress in the fall, cementing his status as one of his country's most historic leaders alongside Mao Zedong.
Economic disruption from Ukraine that worsens the knock-on effects of a new Covid-19 wave, which saw restrictions imposed in the crucial southern trading city of Shenzhen, could also disrupt Xi's hopes for a smooth political year.
Kennedy suggested several possibilities that could prompt Xi to reconsider his current path regarding Russia. First, if the war starts to go even more poorly for Putin and it threatens his own rule. "They don't want to back a loser," Kennedy said of the Chinese. Then, if the so-far unified Western front against Russia is sustained -- and might be turned on China if it seeks to breach the sanctions barricade against Moscow -- Xi might shirk from a serious confrontation.
Dramatic course shifts were unlikely following the call. But if the President is able to pry China even a slight bit away from Putin -- or give Russia the impression he has done so -- he may be able to claim some progress.

 

Sarah Everard: Killer Wayne Couzens charged with four counts of indecent exposure

Wayne CouzensImage source, Met Police
Image caption,
Wayne Couzens admitted the murder, kidnap and rape of Sarah Everard last year

Sarah Everard's killer Wayne Couzens has been charged with four counts of indecent exposure.

The alleged offences are said to have taken place between January and February 2021, when Couzens was a serving Metropolitan Police officer.

The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) said the alleged offences predate the murder of Ms Everard, who was killed in March 2021.

Couzens will appear at Westminster Magistrates' Court on 13 April.

The 49-year-old is serving a whole-life tariff for the abduction, rape and murder of Ms Everard.

Met detectives said the charges relate to a series of alleged sexual offences in Swanley, Kent, including on Valentine's Day last year.

Sarah EverardImage source, Everard family
Image caption,
The body of Sarah Everard was found hidden in woodland in Kent days after she was reported missing

Other dates of alleged indecent exposure include between 22 January and 1 February; between 30 January and 6 February and on 27 February.

Rosemary Ainslie, head of the CPS special crime division, said: "Following a referral of evidence by the Metropolitan Police, the CPS has authorised four charges of indecent exposure against Wayne Couzens."

 

Covid: Rise in UK infections driven by BA.2 Omicron variant

Commuters, some wearing face coverings, travel on a packed London Overground train service on 1 March 2022Image source, AFP

Covid cases have continued to rise in the UK, with an estimated one in every 20 people infected, figures from the Office for National Statistic suggest.

All age groups are affected, including the over-75s, who are due a spring booster jab to top up protection.

Hospital cases are also rising, but vaccines are still helping to stop many severe cases.

An easily spread sub-variant of Omicron, called BA.2, is now causing most cases.

Recent easing of restrictions and waning immunity from the vaccines could be factors behind the rise too.

The ONS infection survey, which tests thousands of people randomly in households across the UK, estimates that 3.3 million people would have tested positive in the week ending 12 March - up from 2.6 million the previous week.

Scotland has seen infection levels rise for seven weeks in a row. They have now reached a new record high, with 376,300 people estimated to have had Covid last week, or one in 14.

Infection rates across the nations were:

  • England: 4.9%, up from 3.8% last week - approximately one in 25 people
  • Wales: 4.1%, up from 3.2% last week - approximately one in 25 people
  • Northern Ireland: 7.1% , down from 7.8% last week - approximately one in 14 people
  • Scotland: 7.15% up from 5.7% last week - approximately one in 14 people

It comes as the UK continues to lift previous Covid restrictions. As of Friday, people arriving in the UK will no longer need to take a Covid test, even if they haven't been vaccinated.

It is part of the government's Living with Covid strategy that relies on personal responsibility and mass vaccination to protect the public, rather than laws and limits on what people are allowed to do.

Covid infections in UK

Prof James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and Professor of Structural Biology, University of Oxford, said the high infection levels in the UK currently, with few Covid restrictions, meant that almost anyone could catch the virus.

"My main concern is for the vulnerable for whom this disease is serious.

"Every effort must be made to triple vaccinate as many people as possible, quadruple vaccinate the most vulnerable."

Sarah Crofts, head of analytical outputs for the Covid-19 Infection Survey, said: "These latest figures show further increases in infections across most of the UK with high levels of infection everywhere, and in Scotland the highest our survey has seen.

"These increases are largely driven by the marked rise of the Omicron BA.2 sub-variant. It's notable also that infections have risen in all age groups, with the over-70s reaching their highest estimate since our survey began.

"We remain thankful to all of our participants for their continuing involvement."

 

Arnold Schwarzenegger's anti-Ukraine war video trends on Russian social media

Arnold Schwarzenegger in Moscow in January 2013Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
In the video, the actor spoke of his affection for the Russian people

A video address by Hollywood actor Arnold Schwarzenegger to the Russian people was trending on Russian Twitter on Friday and has sparked reaction.

In it, Schwarzenegger warns Russians they are being fed misinformation about their country's assault on Ukraine.

Addressing Russian President Vladimir Putin directly, he says: "You started this war, and you can stop it".

His intervention has been praised by Russians who oppose the war in Ukraine.

Writing on the Telegram app, opposition politician Lev Shlosberg said it had been filmed "with respect towards us, Russian people".

"Arnold Schwarzenegger has a unique ability to talk to anyone with persuasion, respect and on equal terms. Wits, power and justice. Have a listen. Think about it. Understand," Mr Shlosberg said.

Also on Telegram, liberal journalist Anton Orekh said his message contained no "Russophobia".

"We are outcasts in the world.. Arnold is one of the few people who addressed Russians not as savage orcs, but as good people who have lost their ways," Mr Orekh said.

But a pro-Kremlin spoof account, Barack Obmana on Twitter, derided it, saying "the opinion of paid US talking heads" mattered little to Russians.

Russia has consistently said the war in Ukraine was a "special operation" to protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

But in his video, Schwarzenegger said the Kremlin was lying to Russians when it said the invasion was intended to "denazify" Ukraine.

Ukraine did not start the war, but "those in power in the Kremlin" did, he said.

By 13:00 GMT the video had been viewed nearly 25m times and had been retweeted 325,000 times.

Schwarzenegger is one of the few accounts followed by the Kremlin's official Russian- and English-language Twitter accounts.

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In the nine-minute video, which also shows footage of the destruction in Ukraine, the actor-turned-politician calls on people to see through disinformation and propaganda.

"I'm speaking to you today because there are things going on in the world that are being kept from you, terrible things that you should know about," he says.

"Ukraine did not start this war, neither did nationalists or Nazis," the former California governor says, noting that the country's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is Jewish. "This is not the Russian people's war."

The Austrian-born former bodybuilding champion - whose film Red Heat was the first US film shot in Moscow's Red Square - speaks of his affection for the Russian people and talks about being inspired as a youth by Russian bodybuilder Yuri Vlasov.

He also talks about his father, who was among Nazi German troops who attacked St Petersburg - then called Leningrad - during World War Two. He returned a "broken man" full of pain from a wound he sustained during fighting and the guilt he felt at having taken part.

"The strength and the heart of the Russian people have always inspired me," he says. "That is why I hope that you will let me tell you the truth about the war in Ukraine."

He goes on to say: "This is an illegal war. Your lives, your limbs, your futures have been sacrificed for a senseless war condemned by the entire world."