Al Qaeda's leader in Yemen under arrest, UN report reveals
(CNN)The leader of al Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen has been under arrest for several months, the United Nations disclosed Thursday in a development that may have opened up a goldmine of information for counterterrorism agencies in their campaign against the global al Qaeda network.
According
to the UN, the leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP),
Khalid Batarfi, was arrested and his number two, Saad Atef al Awlaqi,
died during an "operation in Ghayda City, Al-Mahrah Governorate, in
October."
This
is the first time Batarfi's arrest has been officially confirmed. The
UN provided no further details about the operation or on Batarfi's
current whereabouts. In early October, the SITE Intelligence Group drew
attention to "unconfirmed reports" indicating Batarfi had been arrested
by Yemeni security forces in the Mahra Governorate and then handed over
to Saudi Arabia.
Batarfi's arrest was disclosed in a wide-ranging report
to the United Nations Security Council by UN monitors tracking the
global jihadi terrorist threat, which also warned of a potential surge
in ISIS terrorist attacks as Covid-19 restrictions are eased.
Batarfi
became the leader of AQAP in early 2020 after his predecessor was
killed in a US airstrike. Batarfi, who is in his early 40s, is from a
Yemeni family but was born in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He trained with al
Qaeda in Afghanistan before 9/11 and later joined al Qaeda's affiliate
in Yemen. Batarfi became a key ideologue for the group and, according to
the UN, helped oversee its external operations before he became leader.
The
fact that Batarfi allowed himself to be captured alive during the raid
rather than securing "martyrdom" like Osama bin Laden will be a major
embarrassment to al Qaeda. In his inaugural address as AQAP leader last
March, Batarfi stated that "as per our methodology, the martyrdom of
leaders is proof of its truthfulness, and it is a badge of honor adorned
by these leaders," according to a translation by the SITE Intelligence
Group.
Given
Batarfi was the "emir" of one of al Qaeda's key regional affiliates,
there has arguably not been a more senior al Qaeda leader captured alive
since bin Laden founded the group more than 30 years ago. Despite
putting out statements on other matters in recent months, AQAP has not
acknowledged Batarfi's arrest.
The
loss of Batarfi is the latest in a string of setbacks for AQAP. In
February 2020, the US government announced that Batarfi's predecessor
Qassim al-Rimi had been killed in an airstrike in Yemen. That followed a
deadly shooting attack in December 2019 at Naval Air Station Pensacola
by a Saudi air force officer who was coordinating with AQAP, according
to the US Justice department.
"In
addition to leadership losses, AQAP is suffering an erosion of its
ranks caused by dissentions and desertions," and was forced to disperse
from Bayda Governorate after a significant military defeat, the UN
report states.
It
states that the global al Qaeda network "faces a new and pressing
challenge concerning its leadership and strategic direction, following
an exceptional period of attrition of its senior leaders" in
Afghanistan, Mali, Somalia, Yemen and Syria's Idlib province.
The
report stated that no member state had been able to confirm reports of
the death from natural causes of al Qaeda's leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in
October. Last month the US government publicly confirmed reports that
his deputy Abu Muhammad al-Masri had been killed in Iran in August.
The
UN report suggests the likely next in line to take over from
al-Zawahiri is Saif al-Adel, a veteran Egyptian al Qaeda operative who
like al-Masri is believed to have long resided in Iran.
The
report states: "Should a succession to al-Zawahiri become necessary, it
may be difficult for the new leader to take up residence in
Afghanistan, as such a move could have an impact on the interests of the
Taliban, given their peace process obligations. Al-Qaida is expected by
Member States to overcome these challenges, but it is not clear whether
it will ultimately emerge stronger, under a more dynamic leadership, or
indeed where its leaders will ultimately find a safe haven from which
to operate."
A potential future surge in ISIS terror attacks
In
its wide-ranging assessment of the global jihadist threat, the UN
report warns that as coronavirus restrictions are eased, "a rash of
pre-planned attacks may occur" because ISIS is determined to make global
news headlines once again.
The
UN report notes that ISIS has enjoyed a "captive audience" among
Islamist extremists cooped up indoors and spending more time online
during the pandemic, potentially creating an accumulated threat.
Between
September and November last year, jihadis carried out a spate of terror
attacks in France, Germany, Austria and Switzerland, underlining the
enduring threat to Europe. Some of the attackers may have been motivated
to act before it became more difficult to target people congregating in
public.
A
deadly terrorist stabbing attack in a church in Nice, France, in late
October and a deadly marauding gun attack in the center of Vienna,
Austria, in early November were carried out just hours before nationwide
coronavirus lockdowns were due to go into effect in France and Austria.
According
to the report, one jihadi network in Europe causing concern is the
so-called " 'Lions of the Balkans', an international network composed of
elements based in at least Austria, Germany, Switzerland and western
Balkan countries."
According
to the UN, both the Vienna attacker and one of those arrested in
connection with an ISIS plot to attack US and NATO military bases in
Germany thwarted by German police last April were linked to this
network, as were three jihadis arrested in September in North Macedonia
"detected to be involved in the final planning stage of a terrorist
attack."
A darkening global threat picture
The
report warns that "[t]he economic and political toll of the pandemic,
its aggravation of underlying drivers of violent extremism and its
expected impact on counter-terrorism efforts are likely to increase the
long-term [jihadist terror] threat everywhere."
The
UN monitors assessed that "[i]n conflict zones, where restrictions on
movement and gatherings are difficult or impossible to enforce, and
where foreign terrorist fighters have continued to travel freely, threat
levels have increased," with the pandemic weakening "the hand of
governments in conflict zones more than it has inhibited terrorist
groups." The report warned that the pandemic's "long-term impact on
economies, government resources and allocations for international
cooperation risks aggravating the threat further."
According
to the report, an estimated 10,000 ISIS fighters continue to wage a
"sustained insurgency"in Syria and Iraq. The report says that although
the majority of these fighters are reported to be in Iraq, pressure by
Iraqi security forces is making the country more difficult for [ISIS]
operations in comparison with" Syria.
Outside
the former "caliphate," the UN report singles out ISIS's seizure of
significant territory along the northern Mozambique coastline and its
projection of violence into Tanzania as of great concern. According to
the report, ISIS fighters still hold the Mozambique port of Mocimboa da
Praia, "despite a sustained military offensive from government forces."
The
report presents evidence of ISIS cooperating throughout the wider
region, with some member states observing "operatives in Mozambique and
the Democratic Republic of the Congo had received reinforcement of
trainers, tactical strategists and financial support remitted from the
[ISIS] core through [ISIS] networks and enablers in Somalia and other
East African countries."
No comments