Miscalculating Sinema and Manchin could end up costing Biden
Washington (CNN)The message emblazoned on the bright pink sweater Sen. Kyrsten Sinema wore presiding over the Senate this week may not have been intended specifically for the White House, but the words could still offer fair warning to the West Wing.
"DANGEROUS CREATURE," the Arizona Democrat's sweater blared in all-capital letters.
The
sartorial choice might have been laughed off if it weren't for Sinema's
emerging power, along with fellow centrist Democrats such as Sen. Joe Manchin, to endanger President Joe Biden's agenda in an evenly divided Senate.
Already,
Sinema has said she opposes Biden's proposal to insert a minimum wage
increase into a massive Covid-19 relief package that he hopes to pass by
mid-March. And as Neera Tanden's nomination
to lead Biden's budget office was teetering on collapse, Sinema refused
to say how she would vote, prolonging the interregnum for the
controversial nominee.
Tanden's
nomination was already on life support after Manchin said he would not
support her, citing old tweets she wrote that disparaged members of both
parties. And like Sinema, the West Virginia Democrat also says he
opposes the increase in the minimum wage.
The
outsized role the centrists will play in Biden's efforts in Congress
have earned them both the attention -- and, in some instances, the
private ire -- of White House officials, who are loathe to appear
beholden to a small group of lawmakers but have almost no room for error
on close votes.
As
the White House maintained its public support for Tanden on Wednesday,
one official suggested the increasingly quixotic effort to secure her
confirmation was meant, in part, to counter the perception that Manchin
had sole ability to derail Biden's agenda.
The
rules of the Senate have always allowed any individual senator to slow
down a nomination, but the dynamics of a 50-50 split in the chamber have
given Sinema and Manchin even more power in determining the fate of a
nomination or a piece of legislation.
"That's
usually the case that one senator can stop things. It's more dramatic
now because we in the Democratic majority need to do things. We need to
give the President his team," said Sen. Dick Durbin, the Democratic
whip, said on Wednesday as Tanden's nomination hovered in limbo. "We're
doing kind of a full scale effort including the White House and members
to find support."
Since
taking office, Biden has held a series of phone conversations with
Manchin, according to aides, and the White House is in regular
communication with Sinema's office to assess where she stands on various
areas of intense administration interest.
Asked
about the influence two moderate Democrats could wield over Biden's
personnel and policy agenda, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said
Biden "has the benefit of experience of recognizing the power of any one
individual senator or one individual member, and he certainly respects
that."
Different styles
Sinema
has long been a stark defender of her views, but she's made a habit of
expressing them privately to Democratic leadership and not in the
Capital hallways with reporters or in national television interviews.
Sinema, who was elected to the Senate in 2018, doesn't typically
advertise how she'll vote on a nominee or bill until she goes to the
floor and does it.
The
Arizona senator has been one of the fiercest enforcers of US Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention guidance on distancing indoors during
the coronavirus pandemic, riding in elevators without any other people
and sternly reminding reporters to keep their distance from her and each
other. For months, she wore neon wigs instead of going to hair salons
to retouch her blonde color.
In
both her political style and biography, she is a different type of
senator than Manchin, who Biden worked with during his years as
President Barack Obama's vice president. Manchin has publicly embraced
his role as a potential spoiler for his own party, broadcasting his
disputes and relishing his kingmaker reputation while drawing irritation
from the President's allies.
Some
White House officials said they felt they had a better handle on
Manchin than on Sinema, who had not served during a Democratic
administration until now. One close adviser told CNN that Manchin is
keenly aware of what Biden's red lines are. In many ways, Manchin isn't
doing anything different than he's done for years in Washington, often
annoying fellow Democrats in the process, though now his independent
streak has assumed outsized potential for scuttling tight votes.
He
broke Democratic ranks multiple times in the Trump administration,
voting for Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and US Ambassador to
Germany Ric Grenell. The former West Virginia governor famously appeared
in a 2010 campaign ad using a rifle to shoot holes in a Democratic
climate bill.
Sinema
is newer to the role and, because she is guarded in her public
appearances, has proved something of an enigma for officials trying to
ascertain her motives or demands.
"She
comes at things from policy," one White House adviser said regarding
Sinema's unwillingness to say how she'll vote on Tanden's nomination.
"She's not as judgmental about personal things."
What
they have in common, according to Democratic aides, is an innate
knowledge of what it takes to win tough races in their states -- purple
Arizona for Sinema and red-leaning West Virginia for Manchin. Their
politics are often a reflection of the people they represent rather than
the Democratic party base that urges them to the left.
That
has proved frustrating to some members of Biden's team who were
counting on Democratic unity in the President's first 100 days, hoping
party cooperation would swiftly move his Cabinet nominees and enact
landmark coronavirus legislation. What the administration has found
instead are moderate Democrats willing to buck their party when their
state politics demand it.
Asked
after an executive order signing on Tuesday if he was concerned with
delays in confirming his Cabinet nominees, Biden said he was.
"I don't so much blame it to the Senate," he said, "I blame it on the failure to have a transition that was rational."
Sinema
and Manchin, both defenders of the Senate as an institution, have
helped their party's leadership navigate through difficult stalemates
with Republicans in recent weeks. Their shared opposition to eliminating
the filibuster helped to finally get Republicans and Democrats to agree
to an organizing resolution that allowed Democrats to take control of
committees after they'd won the Senate.
But
they have also staked out positions early in the Biden administration
that have caused agitation and frustration for their Democratic
colleagues and the White House.
Warning signs
The
biggest warning sign from Manchin came early in the administration,
when he chided Vice President Kamala Harris for conducting a local West
Virginia interview that seemed overly designed to pressure Manchin into
supporting the Covid relief package. Shortly after he took his
complaints public, the White House called him in an attempt to repair
the damage.
In
her round of interviews, Harris also spoke with outlets in Arizona, an
unsubtle attempt to press Sinema as well to vote for the $1.9 trillion
package, which polls show a majority of Americans support.
Sinema
did not complain publicly like Manchin. But later she became the first
Democrat to officially oppose the $15 minimum wage as part of the
coronavirus relief bill. Sinema has said it is superfluous to the
underlying package and that relief should stay aimed at vaccinating
Americans, protecting small businesses and getting kids back to school.
She has also joined other moderates in calling for more targeted aid and
a limit on high-earners from receiving stimulus checks.
Amid
their concerns, Biden has expressed doubts that a minimum wage increase
will be included in the final bill. And he has expressed an openness to
more targeted checks.
Manchin's
announcement of opposition to Tanden was similarly the first indication
that her chances of confirmation were narrowing. He gave Senate
Majority Leader Chuck Schumer a heads up before issuing his statement,
but it still sent the White House into damage control mode when he
released it on Friday afternoon.
On
Wednesday, Sinema's undeclared position was at least partly to blame
for a delay in a committee vote on Tanden. Sinema, who sits on the
Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, refused to
say how she would vote. One source told CNN the committee was
specifically concerned with Sinema's status and did not want to risk
taking the vote on Tanden without knowing the outcome.
Publicly
the White House is sticking by Tanden, insisting they are looking to
identify at least one Republican vote to secure her confirmation.
Privately, some officials have conceded her nomination could easily
fail, noting presidents don't usually get all of their nominees
confirmed.
Multiple
aides told CNN that Biden's team was leaning so confidently into the
idea of their party falling in line on nominations that minimal outreach
was conducted to convince moderate Republicans to vote for Tanden at
all. Even after Manchin came out against Tanden, moderate Republicans
heard little or nothing from the White House, according to aides.
On
Monday, the one Republican who could determine Tanden's fate -- Sen.
Lisa Murkowski of Alaska -- said she hadn't spoken to the White House
about the nomination, though by Wednesday she said officials had reached
out.
By
then, her GOP colleagues Sen. Susan Collins and Mitt Romney had
officially already announced their opposition to Tanden's nomination.
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