Senate Democrats are on the verge of a *major* recruiting win

(CNN)The news that Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan is moving toward a bid to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R) is a major early recruiting win for Democrats as they seek to hold -- and widen -- their majority in the 2022 midterm elections.

"I've been hearing from Democrats across Ohio and the country who are excited at the possibility of picking up a Senate seat that we haven't held in decades," Ryan told CNN Monday night. "I have been encouraged by their support, enthusiasm and commitment. The US Senate needs another working class voice and I'm very serious about the opportunity to continue representing the people of Ohio."

While many people roll their eyes when it comes to talking about the 2022 election just months after the conclusion of the 2020 presidential race, the political reality is that it's often in these early months of an election cycle where majorities are lost and won.

You don't beat someone with no one, as the cliche goes. And the search to find the best "someone" is often a years-long effort that can make or break a party's chances at competitiveness.

That's certainly the case in Ohio and with Ryan. While the Buckeye State was considered a key swing state in the early 2000s, it has moved clearly toward Republicans in the past two decades. Former President Donald Trump won the state by 8 points and Democrats hold only one statewide office. (Sen. Sherrod Brown is the lone Democrat.)

As Jessica Taylor wrote of the state (and its now-open) Senate seat for the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan campaign tip sheet, last month:

"As other Sun Belt states like Georgia and Arizona are trending more Democratic, Ohio's demographics are moving in the opposite direction. And Democrats have better opportunities in the two other open GOP-held seats in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Still, even Republican strategists privately admit this decision from Portman isn't good news for them and that they will have to fight — likely through a large and messy primary — to hold onto the seat."

Enter Ryan. While he is remembered nationally -- to the extent he is remembered at all -- for his quixotic bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 (he dropped out of the race in October 2019), Ryan has long been seen as Democrats' best hope to crack the increasing Republican dominance in the state.

He has been mentioned as a Democratic candidate for, literally, every statewide office since at least 2006 -- when he deferred to Brown in the open seat Senate race. Ryan has forever been the one that got away for Democrats, always opting to stay in the House (and accrue seniority on the influential Appropriations Committee) rather than take the risk of running statewide.

(Sidebar: Following his speakership challenge to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi after the 2016 election -- he got 63 votes in a loss -- Ryan was seen as a potential House leader. But the House Democratic caucus has lurched far to the ideological left, making a centrist like Ryan persona non grata.)

That Ryan appears to have finally decided to get off the sidelines and run for Senate is, then, a very big deal. His profile -- centrist politics married with extremely strong union support and a base in northeastern Ohio -- would seem like the ideal one to give Democrats a real chance at putting Ohio in their column next November.

Notice that I said "a real chance" not a "guaranteed victory." Because even with Ryan as their nominee, Democrats are no better -- and likely slightly worse -- than an even money bet to win. (The Cook Report rates the open seat race as "Lean Republican," which feels right.)

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But remember that winning isn't always the only goal. There is only so much money that party committees and outside groups will spend on the battle for the Senate. And every dime spent to defend Ohio, which Portman would likely have won without much trouble had he run, is money that can't be spent by Republicans on winning back Democratic-held states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. And given the size of and number of media markets in Ohio, a competitive Senate race in the state doesn't come cheap. (Portman's last reelection race in 2016, which he won by 21 points, had a price tag well over $100 million.)

What Ryan's candidacy would guarantee is that Republicans would have to spend millions of dollars simply to hold one of their own seats. (And yes, the possibility does exist that Ryan could actually win the race outright.) Facing the prospect of having to dump millions into open-seat races in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and maybe Wisconsin, Ryan's likely candidacy is a headache Republicans absolutely do not want.