China has built the world's largest navy. Now what's Beijing going to do with it?
Hong Kong (CNN)In 2018, Chinese President Xi Jinping donned military fatigues and boarded a People's Liberation Army Navy destroyer in the South China Sea.
Spread
out before him that April day was the largest flotilla Communist-ruled
China had ever put to sea at one time, 48 ships, dozens of fighter jets,
more than 10,000 military personnel.
For
Xi, the country's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, the day was a
way point to a grand ambition -- a force that would show China's
greatness and power across the world's seven oceans.
"The task of building a powerful navy has never been as urgent as it is today," Xi said that day.
China
was already in the midst of a shipbuilding spree like few the world has
ever seen. In 2015, Xi undertook a sweeping project to turn the PLA
into a world-class fighting force, the peer of the United States
military. He had ordered investments in shipyards and technology that
continue at pace today.
By
at least one measurement, Xi's plan has worked. At some point between
2015 and today, China has assembled the world's largest naval force. And
now it's working to make it formidable far from its shores.
In
2015, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) had 255 battle force
ships in its fleet, according to the US Office of Naval Intelligence
(ONI).
As of the end of 2020, it had 360, over 60 more than the US Navy, according to an ONI forecast.
Four years from now, the PLAN will have 400 battle force ships, the ONI predicts.
Go back to 2000, and the numbers are even more stark.
"China's navy battle force has more than tripled in size in only two decades," read a December report by the leaders of the US Navy, Marines and Coast Guard.
"Already
commanding the world's largest naval force, the People's Republic of
China is building modern surface combatants, submarines, aircraft
carriers, fighter jets, amphibious assault ships, ballistic nuclear
missile submarines, large coast guard cutters, and polar icebreakers at
alarming speed."
Some of those will be the equal or better of anything the US or other naval powers can put in the water.
"The
PLAN is not receiving junk from China's shipbuilding industry but
rather increasingly sophisticated, capable vessels," Andrew Erickson, a
professor at the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies
Institute, wrote in a February paper.
A
Type 052D Chinese guided missile destroyer participates in a naval
parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of China's
PLA Navy in 2019.
Those
include ships like the Type 055 destroyer -- which some analysts say
betters the US Ticonderoga-class cruisers for firepower -- and
amphibious assault ships that could put thousands of Chinese troops near
foreign shores.
Where the US stands
While
China is expected to field 400 ships by 2025, the goal of the current
US Navy shipbuilding plan, a goal with no fixed date, is for a fleet of
355 -- a substantial numerical disadvantage.
That's not to say the US Navy has seen its days as the world's premier fighting force come to an end.
When counting troops, the US Navy is bigger, with more than 330,000 active duty personnel to China's 250,000.
Analysts point out several other factors in Washington's favor.
The
US Navy still fields more tonnage -- bigger and heavier armed ships
like guided-missile destroyers and cruisers -- than China. Those ships
give the US a significant edge in cruise missile launch capability.
The
US has more than 9,000 vertical launch missile cells on its surface
ships to China's 1,000 or so, according to Nick Childs, a defense
analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Meanwhile,
the US attack submarine fleet of 50 boats is entirely nuclear powered,
giving it significant range and endurance advantages over a Chinese
fleet that has just seven nuclear-powered subs in its fleet of 62.
Close to home, however, the numbers move in Beijing's favor.
"The
big advantage the Chinese navy holds over the US Navy is in patrol and
coastal combatants, or corvettes and below," Childs said. Those smaller
ships are augmented by China's coast guard and maritime militia with
enough ships combined to almost double the PLAN's total strength.
Those
are troubling signs for Washington as it grapples with budget and
pandemic problems that are much larger than China's. Analysts worry the
trend lines, including China's announcement Friday that it will increase
its annual defense budget by 6.8%, are going in Beijing's direction.
Chinese
President Xi Jinping, meets with representatives of the aircraft
carrier unit and the manufacturer at a naval port in Sanya, south
China's Hainan province on Dec. 17, 2019.
Nobody can match China's shipbuilding
You
can't have the world's largest navy if you can't build a lot of ships.
China gives itself that ability by being the world's largest commercial
shipbuilder.
In 2018, China held 40% of the world's shipbuilding market by gross tons, according to United Nations figures cited by the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, well ahead of second place South Korea at 25%.
Put
in a historical perspective, China's shipbuilding numbers are
staggering -- dwarfing even the US efforts of World War II. China built
more ships in one year of peace time (2019) than the US did in four of
war (1941-1945).
"During
the emergency shipbuilding program of World War II, which supported
massive, mechanized armies in two theaters of war thousands of miles
from home, US shipbuilding production peaked at 18.5 million tons
annually, and the United States finished the war with a merchant fleet
that weighed in at 39 million tons," said Thomas Shugart a senior fellow
at the Center for a New American Security and former US Navy captain, in testimony before Congress last month.
"In
2019, during peacetime, China built more than 23 million tons of
shipping, and China's merchant fleet ... totals more than 300 million
tons," Shugart said.
The Chinese state-owned companies churning out commercial shipping are also the engines of its naval buildup.
"In
conflict, excess PRC industrial capacity, including additional
commercial shipyards, could quickly be turned toward military production
and repair, further increasing China's ability to generate new military
forces," Erickson, of the US Naval War College, wrote last year.
The
infrastructure in place, the workforces involved and the technology
employed in those commercial shipyards is applicable in turning out
warships in quantity.
That's
something China does very well. "Between 2014 and 2018, China launched
more submarines, warships, amphibious vessels, and auxiliaries than the
number of ships currently serving in the individual navies of Germany,
India, Spain, and the United Kingdom," according to the China Power
Project.
"At
the rate China is building naval vessels, and with the capabilities
those newer warships have, I would say that they've already progressed
from what was a coastal defense navy, to what is now probably their
region's most powerful navy -- with some global reach -- and are on
their way to building a world-class power projection navy if they
continue growing as they have," Shugart told CNN.
A
Type 052D destroyer of China's People's Liberation Army Navy provides
an escort ahead of the Liaoning aircraft carrier into the Lamma Channel
as it arrives in Hong Kong territorial waters on July 7, 2017.
The power of missiles
Beijing
has been methodical in its naval buildup, with much of its numbers to
date concentrated on craft such as corvettes, frigates and
diesel-electric-powered submarines that would be useful in waters around
China, said Sidharth Kaushal, research fellow at the Royal United
Services Institute in London.
"The bulk of China's shipbuilding, such as its force of (approximately) 75 Type 056 corvettes,
are smaller vessels of the corvette/frigate size," Kaushal said.
Contrast that to the US Navy, whose closest ship to the frigate class,
the littoral combat ship, now numbers only around 15 combat-dedicated
vessels.
-
Corvette
A Type 056 corvette, above, of the Chinese navy transits Hong Kong's Victoria Harbor in 2019.
Corvettes form the biggest chunk of the People's Liberation Army Navy fleet, with 72 in service as of February 2021, according to a report in state-run Global Times.
Source: Global Times
The corvette force is ideal for tighter, shallower ocean environments, like China's key areas of concern, the South China Sea; around Taiwan; and the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, controlled by Tokyo but claimed by Beijing.
The ships the PLAN puts to sea near Chinese shores are protected by a large ground-based missile force.
The
missiles "problematize US power projection and prevent overwhelming
naval and air power from striking the Chinese mainland," said Kaushal.
"However, this also has the effect of facilitating power projection
against local nations, as these nations are far more vulnerable when the
maritime links that enable the US to support them are severed."
For
instance, if the US Navy was unable to operate in the South China Sea
because of the Chinese missile threat, it would have a hard time
protecting the Philippines, with which Washington has a mutual defense
treaty.
US military leaders are also cognizant that in 2021 the PLA Navy is much more than ships.
"Take a look at what China's really investing in," US Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday said this week in an interview with Breaking Defense.
"Yes, they are putting more ships in the water, but they're investing
heavily in anti-ship missiles as well as satellite systems to be able to
target ships."
All
that gives China a strong hand to play in any possible conflict close
to home. And China is adamant its military is defensive.
"The
development of China's national defense aims to meet its rightful
security needs and contribute to the growth of the world's peaceful
forces," said the country's 2019 defense white paper, titled "China's
National Defense in the New Era."
"China will never threaten any other country or seek any sphere of influence."
So
why is the PLA Navy building aircraft carriers, amphibious assault
ships and large, powerful destroyers and cruisers suitable for operation
far from China?
This
aerial photo taken on January 2, 2017, shows a Chinese navy formation,
including the aircraft carrier Liaoning (C), during military drills in
the South China Sea.
Near seas defense vs far seas protection
Protecting the Chinese mainland and its territorial claims around the region are what Beijing calls "near seas defense."
China's
massive naval buildup coincides with it reinforcing its claims to
almost all of the 3.3 million square-kilometer (1.3 million square-mile)
South China Sea by building up tiny reefs and sandbars into man-made
artificial islands heavily fortified with missiles, runways and weapons
systems.
"Islands
and reefs in South China Sea have unique advantages in safeguarding
national sovereignty and maintaining a military presence in the open
sea," read a December 2020 article in Naval and Merchant Ships, a Beijing-based magazine published by the China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which supplies the PLA Navy.
But
they can't stand alone, the magazine noted. In the events of
hostilities, outposts in the southern reaches of the waterway could
require reinforcements from near China's southern coast, more than a
day's sailing away, it said.
Piling
resources in the near seas to achieve that level of control could be
problematic for China, some argue. It may leave China vulnerable to a
distant naval blockade that could deprive it of vital materials from
abroad, severing what are termed sea lines of communication, or SLOC for
short.
"China
does not control the straits and transit lanes on which its economy
depends and 'once a crisis or war at sea occurs, (China's) sea transport
could be cut off,'" Jennifer Rice and Eric Robb, senior intelligence
analysts at the US Office of Naval Intelligence, wrote in a paper for the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute
last month. "The regional focus of near seas defense is also
insufficient to address the increasingly global scope of China's
economic interests."
To bring Chinese military power to bear on its global interests, they said, China has begun implementing "far seas protection."
"Far
seas protection reflects Beijing's direction for the PLAN to 'go
global,' ... part of a larger Chinese government policy to encourage the
expansion of China's economy and cultural outreach," Rice and Robb
wrote.
Part
of the play is perception. For decades now, nothing has quite projected
military power as the image of a US Navy aircraft carrier in waters far
from home. It's something China craves, analysts say.
"Some
Chinese military analysts suggest it is imperative for the PLA to
safeguard China's overseas interests and note that sending out the PLAN
is essential to establishing China's image as a great power," Rice and
Robb wrote.
Dozens
of corvettes can't do that. So China has ramped up its production of
ships that form an aircraft carrier task force, like guided-missile
cruisers and nuclear-powered submarines, which have much longer
endurance than the diesel-electrics that comprise most of the PLAN
fleet.
The
PLA Navy has two aircraft carriers in service, but their endurance
without refueling is limited to less than week, according to the China
Power project. That makes them more suitable for use in places like the
South China Sea rather than in far oceans.
But
more carriers are in planning and production. The newest planned
Chinese carrier is expected to be equipped with a nuclear power reactor
and electromagnetic catapults that will enable it to launch aircraft
with more firepower and greater range than the existing carriers.
Rice
and Robb point out that two Chinese defense white papers, from 2015 and
2019, say long-range naval forces are necessary to help with
international peacekeeping, disaster relief and naval diplomacy -- in
other words, flying China's flag overseas.
But
they issue a warning. "The peacetime nature of these activities can
obscure far seas protection's wartime applications. The concept
encourages offensive operations during wartime, despite the defensive
strategy its name implies," they wrote.
Citing
Chinese publications, they add, "One source urges naval forces to
'control key strategic channels' far from China. Another source
advocates employing strategic 'fist' forces formed around aircraft
carriers. ... Another wartime mission is to strike important nodes and
high-value targets in the enemy's strategic depth to 'ease pressure on
the near-seas battlefield.'"
China's first aircraft carrier, Liaoning, arrives in Hong Kong waters on July 7, 2017.
What's possible now -- and later
Although the Chinese navy would be a formidable opponent for any foe, its practical abilities don't yet match its aspirations.
Firstly,
the PLAN would require aircraft carrier battle groups with far stronger
air wings than the Chinese fleet's current capabilities.
-
Aircraft carrier
The Shandong, above, is the newest of China's two active aircraft carriers.
Commissioned in 2019, it is an updated version of its predecessor, the Liaoning, which is a platform originally built for the Soviet navy.
The Shandong carries an air wing of approximately four dozen aircraft split between fighters and helicopters. The Shandong is conventionally powered, meaning it can only operate about six days at sea before refueling.
Source: China Power-CSIS
The
PLAN's two active carriers are conventionally powered and based on old
Soviet designs. That limits the range of the ships themselves, the range
and number of aircraft they carry, and the payloads of munitions on
those aircraft.
In
short, they are not even near peers to the US Navy's fleet of 11
aircraft carriers. And just one of those US carriers makes an
intimidating statement while steaming off a foreign shore.
"A
US Navy aircraft carrier, its air wing, is more powerful than most
countries' entire air forces," said Eric Wertheim, editor of the US
Naval Institute's "Combat Fleets of the World."
The PLA Navy is not there yet. Note how limited China's long-range naval power projection has been to date.
China's
aircraft carriers haven't ventured farther than the western Pacific,
let alone to projected power globally. While PLAN ships have deployed to
the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and into the North Atlantic to
northern Russian ports, they've done so in small numbers and
infrequently.
Just last week, state-run tabloid Global Times reported
on a Chinese naval expedition group of at least five ships led by a
guided-missile destroyer crossing the equator and sailing into the open
sea. It did not give an exact location of the equator crossing but noted
the group had likely been at sea for three weeks.
"Such missions enable the PLA to get familiar with the high seas as China eyes to build a blue-water navy," the report said.
Global
Times said a year ago a similar expedition group ventured out into the
Pacific, an event noted by Roderick Lee, director of research at the US
Air Force's Air University China Aerospace Studies Institute.
-
Destroyer
A Chinese navy Type 052D destroyer, front, takes part in an exercise with the Russian navy in the Baltic Sea in 2017.
The ship, of which China had built 25 as of August 2020, is a prime example of how China is making modern warships with the ability to project naval power around the world, analysts say.
Sources: Global Times, US Naval Institute
"The
key takeaway from this training event is that the PLAN is developing
the proficiencies to sustain limited offensive strikes against US forces
-- perhaps as far out as Hawaii," Lee wrote for the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief.
"The
PLA Navy is making significant progress in joint operations, damage
control, logistics, and intelligence -- to the extent that they may soon
be able to operate on the doorstep of US Navy port facilities in
wartime."
But other analysts say the realization of the PLAN's blue-water efforts could be years, if not decades, away.
"By
2049 China aims to have a global military that's able to fight and win
wars and project power globally," Meia Nouwens, senior fellow for
Chinese defense policy at the International Institute for Strategic
Studies, said last week as the think tank released its annual world "Military Balance" report.
Along
that timeline, analysts say they are looking for certain benchmarks to
measure progress. They include establishing more overseas bases to
support the PLAN -- it has only one, in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa
-- and building heavy air transport to supply those bases.
"An
interesting one will be when a Chinese carrier group makes a long-range
deployment of significance, potentially into the Indian Ocean," Childs,
the International Institute of Strategic Studies defense analyst, said.
Other notable deployments could include going into the Arctic and possibly the Atlantic, Childs added.
Soldiers
stand on deck of the ambitious transport dock Yimen Shan of the PLA
Navy as it participates in a parade in the sea near Qingdao, China, in
2019.
The Taiwan question
But
in the near term, the center of attention is Taiwan, the democratic
self-governing island that the powers in Beijing say is a historical and
inalienable part of their sovereign territory.
Beijing's 2019 defense white paper said the island's authorities were "intensifying hostility and confrontation, and borrowing the strength of foreign influence."
"The
'Taiwan independence' separatist forces and their actions remain the
gravest immediate threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and
the biggest barrier hindering the peaceful reunification of the
country," the paper said.
And
in a press conference in January, a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman
made clear where the military stands. "Taiwan is an inalienable part of
China," Senior Col. Wu Qian said.
"The
PLA will take all necessary measures to resolutely defeat any attempt
by the 'Taiwan independence' separatists, and firmly defend national
sovereignty and territorial integrity."
In a speech in 2019, Xi said "not a single inch of our land" could be ceded from China.
"We
should safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the
country and achieve full unification of the motherland," he said.
In many ways concerning Taiwan, Xi has set up the PLA Navy fleet to do that.
As
noted, the concentration of smaller surface ships like corvettes and
coastal patrol craft are suited for combat near shores. And there's only
about 130 kilometers (80 miles) of relatively shallow water between
Taiwan and the Chinese mainland, ideal for the corvettes.
Those
six dozen or so corvettes, for example, can carry two anti-ship
missiles each with ranges of up to 200 kilometers (125 miles). Imagine
the tracking and missile defense headache that creates for the US Navy
surface fleet in the Pacific, which can only muster about three dozen
destroyers.
PLA capital shipbuilding can also been seen in the lens of Taiwan.
Late
last year, the Type 075 landing helicopter dock (LHD), a 35,000- to
40,000-ton multipurpose ship about half the size of China's two
in-service aircraft carriers, embarked on sea trials.
As
one of the biggest amphibious assault ships in the world, the Type 075
has a full flight deck to handle helicopters, and a flooded well deck
that can launch and recover hovercraft and amphibious vehicles,
according to an analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). It also has the capacity to carry 900 ground troops, who the helicopters and hovercraft can put ashore.
The
ship, the first of three in the water or in production, "considerably
elevates China's ability to transport, land, and support ground forces
operating outside the Chinese mainland," analysts Matthew Funaiole and
Joseph Bermudez Jr. wrote for the CSIS.
"The new class of ship ... represents a significant step forward for enhancing China's amphibious capabilities."
But if China were to invade Taiwan, it would need far more than 900 ground troops to control and occupy the island.
And
that brings us back to those numbers, including the coast guard, the
maritime militia, even those merchant ships China produces like no one
else can.
"We
would be wise to assume that China will bring all of its tools of
maritime power to bear in ensuring success in a cross-Strait invasion,"
Shugart, the CNAS analyst, told Congress, who drew an analogy to the
escape of British forces from France in World War II to visualize his
point.
"In
something like the form of a reverse-Dunkirk, we should expect that
instead of only dealing with dozens of gray-painted PLA Navy amphibious
vessels and their escorts, we would likely see a Taiwan Strait flooded
with many hundreds of fishing boats, merchant ships, and Coast Guard and
Maritime Safety Administration vessels."
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