Migrants could become the new Covid scapegoats when Europe's borders reopen
Nigel
Farage stands in front of the infamous Brexit referendum poster in
2016, purporting to show migrants queuing to get into the EU.
(CNN)With Europe's vaccine rollout creeping forward, attention is turning to what will happen when the continent's borders reopen. Where this debate could get particularly fraught is over the thorny issue of migration.
Last weekend, populist Euroskeptic Nigel Farage,
whom many credit with making Brexit happen, tweeted about a "Covid
crisis in Dover," baselessly claiming that a boat carrying migrants had
landed in southeast England, "with 12 on board and they all tested
positive for the virus."
The UK government took the unusual step
of directly responding to Farage's tweet, with the Home Office
replying: "This is incorrect. None of these 12 people tested positive
for Covid-19. All adults who arrived today have been tested for
Covid-19."
Twitter
has since removed Farage's original tweet, for violating the site's
rules. CNN asked Farage to comment on the matter, but he declined to
respond.
A
Home Office official told CNN that while the suggestion migrants are
spreading the coronavirus is a "fringe opinion," they are concerned
about people with large groups of followers -- like Farage -- amplifying
this false message. And they noted that Farage's tweet got a lot more
interaction from Twitter users than their reply correcting it.
Farage has form for using the plight of migrants to further his political ambition.
During
the Brexit referendum campaign in 2016, his group famously unveiled a
poster showing a long line of people -- supposedly migrants -- alongside
the slogan: "BREAKING POINT: The EU has failed us all."
A woman carries a child after a fire broke out in the Moria migrants camp in Lesbos on September 9, 2020.
In
the months leading up to the referendum, Europe had seen a huge influx
of refugees desperate to flee conflict in the Middle East, particularly
Syria.
Defending the poster, Farage made a direct link
between migration from Syria and terrorism, saying: "When ISIS say they
will use the migrant crisis to flood the continent with their jihadi
terrorists, they probably mean it."
The poster -- which obscured the only prominent White person in the original image -- was subsequently reported to the police for inciting racial hatred.
The photographer who captured the shot, at the border between Slovenia and Croatia in 2015, said the poster "betrayed" the people pictured.
Farage is not alone in his attempts to spread misinformation suggesting a link between Covid and migrants.
Politicians
in Greece have used the virus to justify closed migrant camps, while in
Italy, opposition figures have used the arrival of refugees to batter
the government during a pandemic.
Migration Watch, an influential British think tank that advocates for lower levels of migration, tweeted recently
that a strain of the virus first detected in southeast England was
responsible for 61% of infections in England, despite only being
discovered in September. It continued: "September 2020 also saw the most
illegal Channel crossings ever in a month. Coincidence...?"
There is no evidence migrant crossings of the English Channel have done anything to cause a mutation in the virus.
Academics
working in migration policy are concerned that as Europe begins to open
up, populists will latch onto the idea that migrants could spread the
virus -- whether the evidence is there to back it up or not.
"Anti-migrant
sentiments might increase during economic downturns, as migrants can be
blamed for taking jobs or overusing public resources in areas like
healthcare," said Marina Fernandez-Reino, senior adviser at Oxford
University's Migration Observatory.
She
noted that -- so far, at least -- "negative attitudes towards migrants
do not seem to have increased during the current crisis."
Fernandez-Reino
added the caveat, however, that while the public is focused on things
like economic recovery and ending lockdown, there is preliminary
evidence that the pandemic might have led to "an increase in
discrimination against Chinese migrants."
If
citizens are willing to point the finger at one minority group, the
implication is that they will be happy to do so at another, should the
circumstances arise.
The instinct to blame migrants for national woes is not a uniquely British one.
"We
have seen too many politicians using cheap rhetoric in an effort to use
the issue as an easy political punching bag," said Roberta Metsola,
First Vice-President of the European Parliament.
Politicians in Greece have used the virus to justify closed migrant camps, while in Italy, opposition figures have used the arrival of refugees to batter the government during a pandemic.
Metsola
believes that one way of neutralizing this narrative is by building
faith in Frontex, the EU's border and coastguard agency.
In
the months leading up to the 2016 referendum, Europe had seen a huge
influx of refugees desperate to flee conflict in the Middle East,
particularly Syria.
Much
of the debate around migration and Covid ignores the real picture of
what's happening at Europe's borders. An EU official working on border
control told CNN that in April and May 2020, the numbers of migrants
coming into the EU were the lowest they have been since records began in
2009.
The
official explained that many of those who have made it into the bloc
during the coronavirus crisis have been trying to land undetected, to
avoid being held in camps: "They wanted to either keep moving or avoid
being stuck in a camp where the virus could easily spread."
Migrant
camps are uniquely good at provoking strong emotions in European
politics. For some, they are a hellish, undignified fate awaiting people
fleeing war-torn nations; for others, they are a source of fear:
Thousands of unwanted people just waiting to flood into their nation.
"It's
a gift for people like Farage. People from dangerous places, unable to
socially distance and ready to bring disease into the country," said the
EU official.
Migrants gather at the Turkey-Greece border on February 29, 2020, where clashes took place with Greek police.
For
now, this may be a debate happening on the fringes of European
politics, but it is almost inevitable that it will become more of an
issue, given that elections are due in the key European nations of the
Netherlands, Germany and France over the next 13 months.
In
all three countries, populist, far-right parties are likely to pick up
significant numbers of votes. In France, 2022's presidential election is
likely to come down, once again, to a face-off between the incumbent,
Emmanuel Macron, and the far-right's Marine Le Pen.
Even
though these parties are unlikely to end up in power, they have already
reshaped the European center-right, dragging figures like France's
Macron and Mark Rutte of the Netherlands, to the right on a number of
issues, most notably Islam.
"I
can see a narrative emerging where many European citizens are
vaccinated but countries where high numbers of migrants come from are
not and new variants are spreading," said Sarah de Lange, professor of
political science at the University of Amsterdam. "That will help the
populists, who could use it to influence the debate around migration and
border control more broadly."
The
migrant crisis of 2015 was a defining moment in European politics, as
millions fleeing war and famine entered the continent, forcing leaders
to strike deals with Turkey's autocratic leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The
unpredictable strongman agreed to hold migrants in his country -- but
that left him with a trump card he could play at any time: The threat to
flood Europe with migrants.
Politicians
who advocated for taking in large numbers of refugees -- most notably
German leader Angela Merkel -- have since had to face criticism from all
sides every time a migrant committed a violent crime or a boat
capsized, drowning people who knew death was a risk but took it anyway,
because reaching Europe was a better option than living in a warzone.
Fear
has always been an effective political tool. As post-pandemic life
establishes itself, it seems inevitable that politicians will see the
advantage of using an issue as evocative as migration as a way of
proving their credentials as someone with the guts to answer one of
Europe's toughest political questions
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