Democratic senator's stroke exposes fragility of 50-50 Senate majority
As if their stalled and tattered agenda wasn't proof enough, Democrats just got a poignant reminder of the precarious nature of life in a 50-50 Senate, especially ahead of an impending Supreme Court nomination.
After news broke Tuesday that New Mexico Sen. Ben Ray Luján suffered
a stroke last week, there was palpable concern for a valued fellow
senator and then relief among his colleagues that he was expected to
make a full recovery.
At
49, Luján is one of the geriatric Senate's young bucks, yet his sudden
hospitalization, at least for now, deprives Majority Leader Chuck
Schumer of a functioning majority if he needs to call a short-notice
vote.
And
it offered a preview of more serious long-term implications for
Democrats if even one of their number becomes temporarily or permanently
incapacitated. Thoughts about the fragility of the chamber's delicate
balance of power will have flashed across many minds on Tuesday
afternoon. This consideration is especially acute since the Senate will
soon begin to consider President Joe Biden's nominee to replace Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer. Renewed
focus on the slim margin of error available to Democrats in the
confirmation process also underscored why so many progressives were so
itching for Breyer to retire. They are desperate to confirm a liberal
justice while their Senate majority holds to avoid further bolstering
the current 6-3 conservative majority on the high court.
Democrats
believe they have a good chance to get at least a few GOP votes to
confirm Biden's yet-to-be-announced nominee that would give them some
breathing space. But given the stark polarization in Washington, it's
not out of the question that tactical calculations could change if the
political winds shift. Without Republican votes, they would need all 50
Democratic senators to vote in person to back the nomination.
There
is a good case that Democrats outside Washington and some in the House
didn't fully appreciate the complexities of working with a 50-50 Senate
majority that requires every Democrat to form a simple majority, plus
the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. Democrats have
learned reality the hard way, after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema,
both moderate Democrats, blocked Biden's vast social spending and
climate program and a bid to change filibuster rules to reform electoral
law.
Speed
is therefore of the essence for Democrats to avoid any mishaps with the
Supreme Court confirmation. Senate Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin of
Illinois said Tuesday that Biden was hoping for a brisk confirmation
process of about 40 days once he's named his pick. If the President
announces his nominee by the end of this month, that could give Luján
two months or more of convalescence before a final vote if necessary.
Schumer
moved quickly to shut down speculation about the resilience of the
Democratic majority and quickly said that the priority was for Luján to
recover. "We are all grateful that he will have a full recovery," the
New York Democrat told reporters, before sending a message to calm
Democratic nerves.
"We
look forward to his quick return to the Senate and I believe the Senate
will be able to carry forward with its business," Schumer said.
Several
of Luján's other colleagues also stressed that he was expected to make a
full recovery and should be back among them soon.
"I
think what's important is that it's really easy for all of us in this
business to put this place first," said Luján's fellow New Mexico Sen.
Martin Heinrich. "My hope is that Ben Ray will put himself first for the
next two weeks."
Aged Senate stirs concern among Democrats
A
sudden reminder of mortality in any workplace can be unsettling. And
given the huge political implications of the Senate's delicate balance
of power and the advanced age of its incumbents, such shocks especially
reverberate on Capitol Hill.
According to a recently updated Congressional Research Service report,
the average age of the current Senate is 64.3 years. But many of the
most powerful Democrats are in their 70s and 80s. Even the merest
suggestion of something amiss about a senator's health sends concern
rippling through Washington. This was the case when Sen. Patrick Leahy
went to the hospital briefly after not feeling well a year ago.
The 81-year-old Vermonter, who serves as Senate president pro tempore,
has since said he won't run for reelection. And California Sen. Dianne
Feinstein, 88, insisted she was fit to continue a term that runs through 2024 following a New Yorker article in late 2020 that raised questions about her capacity.
In
the event Feinstein leaves before the end of her term, California's
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom could name a replacement and he has said he
would choose a Black woman. Leahy's state, Vermont, which has a GOP
governor, has a tradition of naming an interim replacement from the same
party as the departing senator. States have various rules on naming
replacement senators and interim seat warmers and on calling special
elections. But it's not impossible that a Democratic senator forced to
resign or die would be replaced, at least for a short time, by a
Republican governor in a way that shifts majority control to the GOP.
Even
if that doesn't happen, things are tough enough for Schumer as he tries
to come up with a way to revive Biden's Build Back Better plan and
somehow keep the fight for voting rights reform alive. Before Luján's
condition became known, several brief episodes encapsulated the
Democratic conundrum.
Asked
whether he had held talks with fellow Democrats about the Build Back
Better plan, Manchin replied on Tuesday: "No, no, no, no. It's dead."
Later, the West Virginian said that anything that was done would have to
get structured differently than the latest, failed version of Biden's
key bill. "You always start at scratch," he said, even though Schumer
later insisted that he was fighting hard to get as much as possible
included in the plan. Previous drafts included free pre-K tuition and
boosts for home health care for sick and elderly Americans as well as
half a billion dollars in climate spending.
How majorities can change midterm
The
showdown with Manchin underscores the need for Democrats to act quickly
on their priorities since they are not necessarily guaranteed to hold
their thin majority until the next Congress is elected in midterm
elections in November.
If
they slipped behind Republicans in the tally of seats in the Senate, it
would not be the first time a majority party had lost its advantage. In
2001, then-Republican Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont
became an independent in a 50-50 Senate and caucused with Democrats,
making South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle the Democratic majority leader and
stalling President George W. Bush's domestic agenda in the process.
But that drama paled in comparison to the 83rd Congress when
nine senators died in office, leading to a revolving door of
replacements as the two parties took turns having the most Senate seats.
In early 1954, then-Democratic Minority Leader Lyndon Johnson chose not
to press for the reorganization of the Senate under Democratic control.
The future president was already wielding huge power as minority leader
and was passing some of his priorities by cooperating with the popular
Republican administration of President Dwight Eisenhower. Johnson's
bipartisanship impressed voters and the Democrats took narrow control
after the 1954 midterm elections, making him majority leader.
Such
a scenario is unlikely in today's polarized times when differences are
more sharply defined by party affiliation than in Johnson's day, when
coalitions were often forged on ideological and geographical faultiness
that spanned both parties. The idea that Senate Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell would pass up the chance to take power again is unthinkable.
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