Former top Trump Russia adviser details the sharp contrast between the former President and Biden
Fiona Hill doesn't know whether President Joe Biden can lead Western allies to ward off Russia's threat to Ukraine. But unlike his predecessor, he's trying.
Hill
has a special vantage point on this slow-rolling crisis that US
officials say could bring war in Europe at any moment. As a White House
national security aide, she advised then-President Donald Trump on
Russia and Ukraine -- and became a star witness in impeachment
proceedings that resulted from his conduct.
Now,
outside the government as a Brookings Institution senior fellow, she's
among the Russia specialists Biden has consulted as he revives foreign
policy priorities shared by every president since World War II except
Trump.
After Trump derided and weakened the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Biden has rallied NATO on Ukraine's behalf.
After
Trump pressured Russia's beleaguered neighbor for his personal benefit,
Biden has steeled Americans for shared sacrifice in defense of
Ukraine's right of self-determination.
After Trump deferred to Russian President Vladimir Putin over
the US government's own intelligence agencies, Biden has deployed those
agencies' tradecraft in a multi-pronged transatlantic effort to deter
Russian aggression.
"You couldn't get a sharper contrast," Hill observed in an interview.
For the moment, at least, she sees Biden's approach paying some dividends.
As
described in her recent memoir, There Is Nothing For You Here, Hill
followed an unusual path to becoming one of America's leading experts on
Russia. Raised in a working-class family in Britain, she parlayed
academic scholarships into advanced degrees from Harvard and an
analyst's job at the National Intelligence Council beginning in 2006
during President George W. Bush's administration.
Witnessing
Britain's industrial decline helped her understand the populist appeals
Trump rode to the White House. But the celebrity real-estate
developer's handling of foreign policy in the Oval Office -- driven not
by expertise or the national interest but by his personal experiences,
impulses and interests -- was like nothing Hill or her national security
colleagues had ever seen.
"There's
no Team America for Trump," Hill recalled. "Not once did I see him do
anything to put America first. Not once. Not for a single second."
It
showed in Trump's praise for the authoritarian leader of Russia, an
American adversary that had boosted his finances as a business
executive. It showed in his reluctance to embrace America's mutual
defense commitments to European allies, which for decades have
constrained Russian behavior; instead, Trump treated NATO as what Hill
called a "protection racket."
Most
notoriously, it showed in Trump's attempt to squeeze Ukraine's
President for manufactured dirt on Biden to help his 2020 election
campaign. He held up American military aid as a political lever as
Ukraine faced the long-running Russian military threat that now has the
entire world on edge.
"All this did was say to Russia that Ukraine was a playground," Hill said.
At
home, Trump softened Republicans' once-hawkish approach to Russia.
Today, the leading Fox News hosts and other conservative voices -- "the
ultimate stooges," as Hill calls them -- buttress Russian arguments as
armed conflict looms.
Yet
even friendly foreign counterparts found limitations in Trump's
scattershot style, which for Hill evokes the old saw about "playing
chess with a pigeon." Russia's bid to upend the post-Cold War security
order in Europe, beginning in 2008 with its invasion of Georgia and
continuing with its 2014 seizure of Crimea -- requires a steadier
negotiating partner.
"Ultimately
Putin wants some kind of deal," Hill said. "They think Biden is the
kind of president who could actually make a deal. Trump never could."
So
far, Biden has held NATO allies together in rejecting Russia's core
demands, bolstering their forces in Europe and threatening punishing
sanctions even though they guarantee domestic economic blowback. Steeped
in decades of bipartisan foreign policy consensus, the Democratic
President has also drawn support from top Republicans such as Senate
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell who have shunned Trump's embrace of
Putin.
That
demonstration of resolve has at minimum made Putin stop and think.
Biden has warned for weeks that Russia could launch a new invasion of
Ukraine at any time. It hasn't yet.
"They
might have thought we were going to crumble, and we didn't," said Hill,
who became an American citizen twenty years ago. "It might have
deterred a full-scale invasion. Now (Putin) is basically recalibrating,
recalculating."
But
durable success for Biden and European allies will depend on staying
power. Even if Russian tanks don't roll across the border, Hill
envisions an extended "boa constrictor" siege in which Putin applies
escalating pressure in hopes of bending Ukraine to Russia's will.
"The real challenge is keeping everyone together for a considerable period," Hill concluded. "It's going to go on a long time."
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