Joe Biden should be thankful he's polling better than Boris Johnson
President Joe Biden has the worst approval rating after one year in office of nearly every elected president, except for former President Donald Trump. But a look across the Atlantic Ocean shows that things can always be worse for Biden.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a Conservative Party member, is mired in scandal
over parties taking place during Covid lockdowns. His ratings are as
low as Richard Nixon's were when he resigned the US presidency in 1974.
Johnson
right now has a popularity rating of about 24% among Britons, across
different polling. (For comparison, Biden's approval rating among US
adults is about 41%.)
The 24% is low by both US and UK standards. Beyond the Nixon comparison, Johnson's popularity is comparable to two US presidents:
Harry Truman and George W. Bush late in their second terms. Truman had a
foreign entanglement and a weak economy. Bush had the same problem.
Both
Truman and Bush saw their parties suffer once-in-a-generation defeats
in the following election. Their parties lost the presidency in blowouts
and endured losses in the House and the Senate.
Something similar has happened in the UK to leaders when their ratings drop this low. Look at data since 1977 from Ipsos.
Johnson's popularity ratings right now is lower than 93% of all prime
minister ratings since the late 1970s. The last prime minister to be
this unpopular was Gordon Brown in the late 2000s.
Brown's
Labour Party lost the next general election, and he was replaced as
prime minister. This has been a theme throughout the last 45 years in UK
politics.
Every
single prime minister whose popularity dipped to Johnson's level failed
to recover. They either resigned the prime ministership (like Tony
Blair) or lost the next general election (like Brown or John Major).
Johnson, at this point, isn't resigning and doesn't face another general election for over two years. There is time for him to recover. The pressure to step down
may ultimately get him, however, as a number of members of his own
party are already trying to oust him. If enough Conservative parliament
members want to, they can force Johnson from power.
Biden
isn't anywhere close to being in the same straits as Johnson. While
Biden isn't as popular as he once was within his own party, he is
unlikely to face any serious challenge if he decided to run for another
term for president.
Moreover,
Biden knows that there is plenty of history of presidents as unpopular
as he is improving their position and actually winning another term in
office. Ronald Reagan (in 1983) and Truman (in 1946) were less popular
later in their terms than Biden currently is and won the next
presidential election.
More
recently, Barack Obama, after the 2010 midterms, was nearly as
unpopular and won a second term. Trump almost won a second term, even as
he was more unpopular at multiple points as Biden.
Biden's
numbers could easily improve depending how conditions in the country
change. His approval ratings have been tied almost directly to the economy and the state of the coronavirus. Inflation, one of the big drivers of economic discontent, is expected to lessen in 2022. The US is also adding a lot of new jobs.
The coronavirus situation, too, may be improving. New cases are falling, and we have no idea where we'll be in 2024.
Even
if the 2024 election were held today, it's not clear Biden would lose.
He's basically running even with Trump, who remains his most likely
opponent. Biden is benefitting from the fact that presidential elections
are ultimately choices, and the non-Biden choice is as unpopular as he
is.
Johnson,
on the other hand, isn't likely to benefit from facing such an
unpopular adversary. Labour Party leader Keir Starmer isn't beloved, but
his net popularity ratings are as good if not better than Biden's
(depending on the poll).
Of
course, most voters won't get to vote directly for Johnson or Starmer
in a general election. They'll be voting for candidates representing the
Conservative, Labour and other parties in their own constituencies (or
districts).
On
this metric, Johnson is in worse shape than Biden. Johnson's
Conservative Party is trailing in every single reputable poll to
Starmer's Labour Party. The average deficit is running in the high
single digits. It's one of the worst positions the Conservative Party
has been in the last decade.
But
perhaps the best way to look at Johnson's vs. Biden's situation is to
understand that both may not win the next general election, though it
will likely happen in very different ways.
Biden may voluntarily decide not to run because he'll be in his 80s by the next presidential election.
Johnson may be forced out because of how deeply unpopular he is.
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