Russian invasion runs into stiff resistance, supply lines are a 'definite vulnerability,' US officials say

Ukrainian
 service members are seen at the site of fighting with a Russian raiding
 group in Kyiv on the morning of February 26, 2022, according to 
Ukrainian service personnel at the scene.
Lviv, Ukraine and Washington, DC (CNN)Russia's invasion of Ukraine is encountering "stiffer than expected" resistance from the Ukrainian military as well as unexpected difficulties supplying its forces, two senior US officials with direct knowledge tell CNN.
On
 the battlefield, Russia is suffering heavier losses in personnel and 
armor and aircraft than expected. This is due in part to the fact that 
Ukrainian air defenses have performed better than pre-invasion US 
intelligence assessments had anticipated. In addition, Russia has yet to
 establish air supremacy over Ukraine, a senior dedfense official said, 
as the Ukrainian Air Force and air defense systems fight for control of 
the airspace.
"Ukrainian
 air defenses, including aircraft, do continue to be operable and 
continue to engage and deny access to Russian aircraft in places over 
the country," the official said.
Without
 uncontested control of the skies, it becomes more difficult for an army
 on the move to see and strike targets from the air. 
Together, these challenges have so far prevented the quick overthrow of major Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv,
 which US officials were concerned could play out in a matter of days. 
The city of Kharkiv near Ukraine's border with Russia also has not 
fallen to invading forces, which officials worried could happen on the 
first night of an invasion.
Officials
 caution that this picture of the battlefield is just a moment in time, 
and the situation on the ground could change very quickly as Russian 
forces keep up their assault.
These
 officials noted that Russian forces still greatly outnumber Ukrainian 
forces, and Russia continues to maneuver these forces into position 
around major urban centers. It's also unclear how much of the slower 
movement can be attributed to the logistical challenge of moving such a 
large force.
The
 Ukrainian military has a number of different anti-aircraft weapons, 
including radar-guided and heat-seeking missiles, as well as 
anti-aircraft guns, according to IHS Janes. The US has also provided the
 Ukrainian military with Stinger anti-aircraft missiles in recent weeks,
 as have other NATO allies.
As
 of Saturday evening in Ukraine, the US had not seen any indication that
 the Russian military has taken control over any Ukrainian cities, the 
official said, even as Russian forces have moved to surround some 
population centers, including Kyiv.
Keeping
 Russia's large invasion force supplied with fuel and ammunition has 
also proved difficult. As one senior US official explained, Russia 
anticipated a fast victory and may have neglected to plan for sufficient
 resupply of its forces. Supply lines, this official explained, are a 
"definite vulnerability."
"What
 we assess now is that he had to commit a bit more logistics and 
sustainment, in fuel specifically, than what we believe they had planned
 to do this early in the operation," said one of the officials.
Russia's
 forces launched their invasion of Ukraine early Thursday morning, with 
missiles landing in cities across the country. US officials have said 
Moscow's goal is to take Kyiv and "decapitate" the government led by 
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Zelensky turned down an offer from the US
 to evacuate from Kyiv, the Ukraine Embassy in Britain wrote Saturday on
 Twitter. Zelensky has posted videos on social media showing he's 
remained in Ukraine.
"The
 world has seen that Ukrainians are powerful, Ukrainians are courageous,
 they're on their native land, and they're never going to give it up to 
anyone. They will never betray it," he said in an address Saturday.
Russia has spun their slow advance in Ukraine as a stop to allow time for negotiations, not a military setback.
On
 Saturday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said its troops have been 
ordered to resume their offensive "in all directions," after a 
suspension was ordered for negotiations with the Ukrainian government. 
The ministry said the offensive was ordered to continue after Ukraine 
abandoned the consultations. 
A Ukrainian presidential adviser denied in the early hours Saturday that Ukraine had refused to negotiate.
"They
 are having problems," a NATO official said of the Russian forces, 
pointing to the alliance's latest intelligence. "They lack diesel, they 
are proceeding way too slow and morale is obviously an issue."
Asked
 whether the Russians are likely to intensify their efforts, the 
official said they have no choice. "They are way behind schedule," the 
official said. "This is getting out of hand for them, every additional 
day is very painful."
Former
 Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who has also remained in Kyiv, 
said in an interview Saturday on CNN that the Ukrainian military has 
displayed "exceptional heroism" but that the country still needs more 
help from its allies in receiving weapons like anti-tank missiles.
 
 
 


No comments