What is the Minsk agreement and is it a way out of Ukraine crisis?
As world leaders scramble to find a diplomatic solution over the ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, talk has turned to the 2015 Minsk Agreement as a possible way out of the crisis.
The
agreement, the second of its kind (and the one that matters), was
hammered out in the Belarusian capital in a bid to end what was then a
bloody 10-month conflict in eastern Ukraine.
But Minsk II has never been fully implemented, with its key issues still unresolved. Here's what you need to know:
Who are the key players?
A
rare meeting between Russian, Ukrainian, German and French leaders in
February 2015 sought to bring peace to areas of Ukraine that had been
taken over by pro-Russian separatists the year before. Those areas, in
Ukraine's Donbas region,
became known as the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) and the Donetsk
People's Republic (DPR). The Ukrainian government in Kyiv asserted the
two regions were in effect Russian-occupied.
The talks also aimed to work towards a political settlement for the region.
The
result, Minsk II, was signed by representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the
separatist leaders and the Organization on Security and Cooperation in
Europe (OSCE.) It was subsequently endorsed by a UN Security Council
resolution.
What were the conditions of the agreement?
A
ceasefire. In February 2015, there was still heavy fighting in some
areas between Ukrainian forces and Russian-supported rebels, with the
Ukrainians taking heavy losses.
The withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the frontlines.
That the OSCE -- a 57-member security organization that also includes the US and Canada -- monitor the frontlines.
A dialogue on local elections in areas occupied by pro-Russian rebels.
The restoration of full economic and social links between the two sides, so that, for example, pensions could be paid.
That Ukrainian government control be restored over the border with Russia.
The withdrawal of all foreign forces and mercenaries.
Constitutional
reform that would provide some autonomy to the regions of Ukraine's
eastern Donbas region no longer under the central government's control.
What happened after Minsk II was signed?
The
worst of the fighting stopped, and OSCE monitors moved in. To this day,
the OSCE patrols the frontlines and reports ceasefire violations along
the border However, there is much less fighting and fewer casualties
than in 2014-15. From that perspective, the agreement was, at least,
partly fulfilled.
Still, there are 1.5 million internally displaced people in Ukraine, and nearly 14,000 people have died in the conflict.
But there's a catch
The
Minsk Agreement was devised very hastily. Russia was a signatory but
its role in the conflict was not acknowledged. Indeed the word 'Russia'
does not appear anywhere in the text, Ever since, that's allowed the
Kremlin to say that it is merely an observer and that agreement must be
reached between the Ukrainian government and the rebels in the country's
east -- despite evidence showing that Russia supports the separatists.
Kyiv, meanwhile, refuses to talk directly to the rebels.
In
addition, the agreement's language is imprecise -- with Russia and
Ukraine interpreting its political roadmap to mean very different
things.
Ukraine
wants first to regain control of its international border before local
elections are held in rebel-held areas. It also wants Russian forces
(point 7 above) to leave. Russia, of course, says it doesn't have any
forces in the rebel-controlled areas.
Moscow
wants elections while the region is still under the control of the
separatists -- and before Ukrainian authorities regain control over the
border.
Efforts by Western diplomats to square this circle have gone nowhere.
What are the other issues?
The status of the rebel-held areas of the Donbas have never been defined (point 8 above).
Kyiv's view is that the region should have the same sort of autonomy as other Ukrainian regions do, within a federal structure.
Moscow
points to language in the Minsk Agreement that refers to "the special
status of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions" and
interprets that as allowing these regions to have their own police
forces and judicial system, among other advantages.
But
any Ukrainian government that agreed to giving the Donbas special
status might not survive a public backlash. In 2015, then-Ukrainian
President Petro Poroshenko put forward constitutional amendments on
decentralization that were bitterly opposed by Ukrainian nationalist
groups. Riots in Kyiv left three law enforcement officers dead.
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