From an imaginary restraining order to a phantom drop in NATO spending: Trump makes 99 false claims in two weeks
Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump made 99 false claims over the two weeks that ended last Sunday.
Trump
made 22 of the false claims at a campaign rally in Hershey,
Pennsylvania. He made 16 of them in a lengthy exchange with reporters
during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
The
economy was Trump's top subject of dishonesty, with 25 false claims. He
made 22 false claims about military affairs, largely on account of his
presence at a NATO summit. He made 15 false claims about NATO itself, 11
about impeachment.
Trump
is now averaging 63 false claims per week since we started counting at
CNN on July 8, 2019. He made 38 false claims last week, 61 the week
before.
He is now up to 1,450 total false claims since July 8. A breakdown of the lowlights from the last two weeks:
The most egregious false claim: An imaginary restraining order
Trump
has no shortage of factual ammunition for bashing former FBI senior
counterintelligence official Peter Strzok and former FBI lawyer Lisa
Page, who exchanged anti-Trump texts while being involved in the
investigation into the Trump campaign's relationship with Russia (and
while having an affair).
But Trump
is rarely satisfied with accurate attacks when he can do more damage to
his foes' reputations with inaccurate ones. At his December 10 campaign
rally in Pennsylvania, he alleged that one of either Strzok or Page had obtained a restraining order against the other.
Most
presidents try to limit their public storytelling to stories they know
to be accurate. Not Trump, an eager purveyor of rumor and insinuation,
he told the crowd: "I don't know if it's true. The fake news will never
report it. But it could be true. No, that's what I heard, I don't know."
There is not a hint of evidence that the story is true. Page tweeted that it was a "lie."
The most revealing false claim: An assault in Maryland
Trump
comes to many of his rally speeches armed with graphic accounts of
crimes committed by undocumented immigrants. At the Pennsylvania rally,
he recited accurate details of a horrifying recent Maryland case during
which a man allegedly strangled and raped a woman who was trying to
enter her apartment.
Then, appearing to ad-lib for a moment, Trump said, "She was raped and killed, strangled to death."
The victim was not killed. Police reported that doctors said she could have been killed by the strangulation, but she survived.
We
might be inclined to think Trump had made an innocent error had he not
done this kind of needless exaggerating before. At one event
last year, for example, he began to read out his text's accurate claim
that the MS-13 gang on Long Island, New Yorkhad called for the murder of
a police officer, then decided to turn it into a false claim that MS-13
actually did murder the police officer.
The most absurd false claim: Rewriting campaign history
Trump's general approach to history: if you don't like it, rewrite it.
The
Louisiana governor candidate for whom Trump campaigned hard, Eddie
Rispone, lost to incumbent John Bel Edwards by 2.7 percentage points.
Trump claimed twice this month that Rispone lost by less than one
percentage point.
And that was not
the month's most egregious attempt to revise his political past. At the
NATO summit, Trump told reporters that, with the exception of that race
in Louisiana and another governor's race in Kentucky, "I've won
virtually every race that I've participated in."
"Virtually"
is vague, but Trump was wrong however you slice things. He was omitting
the defeats of two Alabama Senate candidates he had touted at rallies
in 2017, a Virginia governor candidate he had repeatedly tweeted to
promote in 2017, and a Pennsylvania congressional candidate and Montana
and West Virginia Senate candidates he had promoted at rallies in 2018.
Here's the full list of 99 false claims, starting with the new ones we haven't previously included in one of these roundups:
Foreign and military affairs
The Turkey-Syria border
"We
pulled our soldiers out and we said, 'You can patrol your own border
now. I don't care who you do it with, but we're not going to have
soldiers patrolling the border that's been fought over for 2,000
years.'" -- December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron
"And
I read a couple of stories just two days ago that, 'Wow, that deal that
Trump did with Turkey' -- because I want to get our soldiers out of
there. I don't want to be policing a border that's been fought over for
2,000 years." -- December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
Facts First: There
is no basis for the claim that there has been fighting over the
Turkey-Syria border for 2,000 years; modern-day Turkey and Syria were
both part of the Ottoman Empire that was only dissolved after World War,
and the border between them is less than 100 years old.
"The border he refers to -- the Turkish-Syria border -- was established in 1923 with the Treaty of Lausanne
and the founding of the Republic of Turkey. The exception to this is
the province of Hatay, which passed from Syrian to Turkish control
following a referendum," said Lisel Hintz, assistant professor of
international relations and European studies at Johns Hopkins, who
called Trump's claims "patently and irresponsibly false." Of the current
conflict between Turkey and Kurdish groups based in Turkey and in
Syria, Hintz added, "Not only have these groups not been fighting over a
border for 2,000 years, none of these groups or even the border in
question existed 200 years ago."
Augusta University history professor Michael Bishku said "Trump is totally incorrect with his history."
Germany's military spending
"...Germany
is paying 1 to 1.2% -- at max, 1.2% -- of a much smaller GDP. That's
not fair." -- December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting with NATO
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
Facts First: Trump's
"max" figure for Germany's defense spending was out of date. While
Germany did spend 1.24% its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense in
2018, according to NATO figures, Chancellor Angela Merkel's government increased
defense spending in 2019 to an estimated 1.38% of GDP, according to
NATO -- still shy of the alliance's 2% target, but higher than Trump
said.
Trump might have simply
been unaware of the German increase, but it also appeared in NATO's
official report in June. (At that point, the alliance estimated that Germany would be at 1.36% of GDP this year.)
Military spending by NATO members, part 1
On
10 separate instances, Trump made inaccurate claims about increases in
military spending by NATO members. He claimed that: 1) He "got NATO
countries to pay 530 Billion Dollars a year more." 2) This increase in
NATO spending will recur on an annual basis. 3) The increase will be
$400 billion in "three years."
Facts First: Trump
was inaccurate in all three ways. NATO says that, by 2024, non-US
members will have spent a total of $400 billion more on defense than
they did in 2016 -- not that they will be spending $400 billion more "a
year." Trump's math was faulty when he added the $130 billion current
increase over 2016 levels to the $400 billion increase expected by 2024;
the $400 billion figure includes the $130 billion. And, again, the $400 billion increase is expected by 2024, not in "three years."
NATO
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg explained during a meeting with
Trump on December 3 that non-US NATO members have added a total of $130
billion to their defense budgets since 2016. By 2024, Stoltenberg said,
"this number will increase to $400 billion."
NATO has made clear in public documents
and statements that the $400 billion figure represents the planned
cumulative spending increase for non-US members since 2016; NATO is not
saying that these countries will be spending $400 billion more every
year, as Trump suggested. NATO spokesman Matthias Eichenlaub pointed CNN
to November comments in which Stoltenberg said that the $400 billion was an "accumulated increase in defense spending by the end of 2024."
We won't call Trump wrong when he takes credit for the spending increases, since Stoltenberg himself has repeatedly given him credit,
but it's worth noting that non-US members began boosting their defense
budgets following Russia's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimea and a
2014 NATO recommitment to the alliance's target of having each member
spend 2% of Gross Domestic Product on defense.
Military spending by NATO members, part 2
"In the 3 decades before my election, NATO spending declined by two-thirds..." -- December 2 tweet
Facts First: There
are numerous possible ways to interpret Trump's vague claim, but we
could not find any way to parse the data that resulted in a finding that
"NATO spending declined by two-thirds" over the three decades prior to
Trump's election in 2016. Neither could two experts we asked to delve
into the numbers.
"Short
answer, this tweet makes no sense to me, and I don't see any evidence
backing up this 'decline by two thirds' business," said Timothy Andrews
Sayle, author of the book Enduring Alliance: A History of NATO and the Postwar Global Order and an assistant professor of history and director of the international relations program at the University of Toronto.
Expert
Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher in the arms and military expenditure
program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, noted
that Trump might have been closer to correct had he said that the share
of gross domestic product that European NATO members spent on defense
declined by two-thirds in the three decades before his election.
According to official NATO data, European NATO members were spending an average of 3.7% GDP on defense between 1980 and 1984 and 3.5% in 1986; the figure had dropped to about 1.5% in 2016, a reduction at least in the general vicinity of "two-thirds."
But,
again, Trump did not say the more-accurate version of the claim. And
when you crunch the actual military spending by NATO members in various
ways -- we won't delve into all of the possible ways the experts said
Trump's comment could be interpreted -- there was nowhere near a
two-thirds decline, both experts found.
Accounting
for inflation, official NATO data shows a decline well under one-third
in military spending by non-US members between 1989, as the Cold War
with the Soviet Union neared an end, and 2016. (NATO noted
that additional countries were added to the alliance over that period,
so it is not an apples-to-apples comparison.) Wezeman analyzed the data
using only the NATO countries that were part of the alliance in 1986 and
still found an inflation-adjusted decrease of well under one-third.
CNN's coverage of Middle East protests
Trump
said that, after he announced in 2017 that he would move the American
embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, "A day went by, and a second day went
by, and there was no violence. I heard there was going to be massive
violence. They showed violence -- because about 20 people were violent
in the front row, but there was nobody behind them. So CNN had the
cameras very low, pointing to the sky ... They said, 'Massive crowds
have gathered. Massive crowds.' And I looked, I said, 'That's a strange
angle. I've never seen that angle.' It was like -- you had a cameraman
sitting on the floor pointing up. But every once in a while, you say,
'There's nobody behind the people in the front row. What's going on?'
And it was a con. It was fake news as usual." -- December 7 speech to
the Israeli American Council National Summit
Facts First: CNN's
coverage of these 2017 protests did not use deceptive camera angles or
exaggerate the size of the crowds. (FactCheck.org, which conducted its
own in-depth review of CNN's coverage, also found no evidence for Trump's claims.)
It is possible Trump was referring to a CNN report
from the West Bank on December 7, 2017, the day after Trump's
announcement about the embassy. The camera bobbed upward and downward
during the last portion of segment -- but only because the
photojournalist carrying the camera was running from tear gas being used
by Israeli forces.
CNN reporter
Ian Lee, who now works for CBS, said in the report that "you are seeing a
lot of people go out in the street and voice their anger," but Lee did
not describe the crowds as "massive." CNN's article
on the day's protests, written by Lee and two others, included the
following sentences: "Speaking in Jerusalem, Israeli police spokesman
Micky Rosenfeld told CNN that protests there were relatively small and
had been largely contained. 'We've dealt with much larger, both in terms
of number, scale, size, seriousness of incidents.'"
In a December 12, 2017, report
on subsequent West Bank protests, CNN senior international
correspondent Arwa Damon said, "The number of Palestinians who have
taken to the streets remains, relatively speaking, low." She said that
the clashes between Palestinians and Israeli forces were "in fact, a
little muted, at least by what the expectations were."
Trump
is correct that there was not major violence at protests immediately
following his December 2017 announcement, but there was at protests on
the day the Jerusalem embassy was officially opened in May 2018. The New
York Times reported
that day: "By late in the evening, 58 Palestinians, including several
teenagers, had been killed and more than 1,350 wounded by gun fire, the
(Israeli) Health Ministry said. Israeli soldiers and snipers used
barrages of tear gas as well as live gunfire to keep protesters from
entering Israeli territory. The Israeli military said that some in the
crowds were planting or hurling explosives, and that many were flying
flaming kites into Israel; at least one kite outside the Nahal Oz
kibbutz, near Gaza City, ignited a wildfire."
Impeachment
Adam Schiff's comments and defamation law
"This
guy is sick. He made up the conversation. He lied. If he didn't do that
in the halls of Congress, he'd be thrown into jail. But he did it in
the halls of Congress, and he's given immunity." -- December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
Facts First: Trump was correct that Rep. Adam Schiff has legal immunity
under the Constitution for comments he made at a House committee
meeting in September about Trump's phone call with Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky. (We've written that those comments were at least confusing.) However, Trump was wrong when he said Schiff would be "thrown into jail" if he had made these comments outside of Congress.
Let's
temporarily set aside the question of the accuracy or inaccuracy of
Schiff's remarks. Apart the fact that it would be exceedingly unusual
for an elected official to be criminally prosecuted for offering a
rendition of the President's comments, even an inaccurate rendition,
there is no law under which Schiff might conceivably be charged: as
PolitiFact noted,
there is no criminal defamation law in Washington, D.C. (where Schiff
was speaking), in California (Schiff's home state), or in federal law.
A quote from Fox News, part 1
"'The
Democrats haven't come up with a smocking (sic.) gun. Nancy Pelosi, by
raising this to the level of Impeachment, has raised the bar impossibly
high. This comes after three years of nonstop investigations of Trump,
the Russian collusion narrative, the Mueller Report, & now the
American people are supposed to believe that this simply isn't a part of
everthing (sic.) they've been trying to do for the last three years? I
think it is really a hard sell for Nancy Pelosi.' @DanHenninger The Wall
Street Journal." -- December 8 tweet
Facts First: Trump omitted the portion of Henninger's comments
on Fox News in which Henninger said things less favorable to Trump --
such as that the House of Representatives could have voted to censure
him for trying to get Ukraine to investigate former vice president Joe
Biden. In between the sentences Trump quoted, Henninger said, "Everyone
can agree or disagree about the rightness or wrongness of what Donald
Trump did with the president of Ukraine, intervening, trying to get him
to investigate Joe Biden. And indeed that's a voteable issue; voters can
make up their minds about that, and indeed the House could have voted
to censure Donald Trump, the will of the House being that this is
wrong."
We give Trump
significant latitude to make errors when quoting people on television,
but we call it a false claim when he alters the meaning of the quote
with major changes or omissions.
A quote from Fox News, part 2
"'The
American people are going to see this for what it is. It is a political
effort by the Democrats, and the President certainly doesn't have to
aid in the Impeachment effort.' Robert Ray @MariaBartiromo" -- December 2
tweet
Facts First: Trump
again omitted an unfavorable and significant part of the quote. This
time, he left out Ray saying that Democrats may (or may not) be correct
that impeachment will help their chances in the 2020 election.
Here's what Ray said
on Fox News, with the key Trump omission in italics: "I think the
American people are going to see this for what it is. I think they do
understand at bottom that this is a political effort. The Democrats have
made a calculation that this is their best way forward in order to
maximize their chances in the 2020 election. They may be right or they may be wrong about that, that remains to be seen. But the President certainly doesn't have to aid in the Impeachment effort."
Elections
The Louisiana governor race
"And
after getting them into a runoff, he picked up 14 points because they
thought he was going to lose to a popular governor -- John Bel Edwards.
Good guy. Popular governor. He almost won. He lost by less than a
point." -- December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting with NATO
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
"And
Louisiana was a long shot. It was less than 1%. He came up 12 or 14
points -- a lot." -- December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting with
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
Facts First: Republican Eddie Rispone lost the Louisiana governor race to Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards by about 2.7 percentage points, 51.33% to 48.67%, not by "less than a point" or "less than 1%."
(In
addition, Trump's claim that Rispone had gained 12 or 14 points is
highly questionable. Trump may have been referring to a single poll, a
month before the vote, that had Rispone down 16 points, but most polls had the race in the single digits.)
Trump's campaign history
"But
with the exception of those two races (in Louisiana and Kentucky),
where I had a huge impact because I raised them up almost to victory and
they had no chance -- with the exception of those two, I've won
virtually every race that I've participated in." -- December 3 exchange
with reporters at meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
Facts First: Though
many of the Republican candidates for whom Trump has campaigned have
gone on to win, it's not true that Trump has won "virtually every race"
in which he has participated. The following candidates were all defeated
after Trump touted them at campaign rallies: Alabama Republican Senate
primary candidate Luther Strange in 2017, Alabama Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore in 2017 after he beat Strange in the primary, Pennsylvania Republican congressional candidate Rick Saccone in 2018, Montana Republican Senate candidate Matt Rosendale in 2018 and West Virginia Republican Senate candidate Patrick Morrisey in 2018.
Virginia Republican governor candidate Ed Gillespie also lost in 2017 after Trump tweeted repeatedly to promote him.
The Mueller investigation
"An overthrow of government"
"This
was an overthrow of government. This was an attempted overthrow. And a
lot of people who were in on it, and they got caught. They got caught
red-handed." -- December 9 remarks at roundtable on school choice
Facts First: There
is no evidence that the FBI's investigation into the Trump campaign's
relationship with Russia was an "attempted overthrow" of Trump.
Michael
Horowitz, inspector general for the Justice Department, found "basic
and fundamental errors" in the FBI's handling of applications for
surveillance of former Trump campaign foreign policy aide Carter Page
under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. Horowitz emphasized the
seriousness of these mistakes in his December report and congressional testimony.
But
Horowitz did not find evidence that the department or the FBI in
particular were attempting some sort of coup -- nor even that there had
been intentional misconduct. Horowitz found that the FBI had a legitimate basis
to open the investigation into the Trump campaign's relationship with
Russia and that the decisions to investigate the campaign and individual
campaign aides were not driven by political bias.
During Horowitz's congressional testimony, Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal asked
him, "Is there any evidence that you found that the FBI tried to
overthrow the president?" Horowitz responded, "No, we found the issues
we identified here. That's what we found." When Blumenthal said, "I
didn't find any conclusion that the FBI meddled or interfered in the
election to affect the outcome," Horowitz replied, "We did not reach
that conclusion."
Peter Strzok and Lisa Page
Mocking former FBI lawyer Lisa Page and former FBI senior counterintelligence official Peter Strzok, who had an affair
while working together, Trump said, "This poor guy -- did I hear he
needed a restraining order after this whole thing, to keep him away from
Lisa? That's what I heard. I don't know if it's true. The fake news
will never report it. But it could be true. No, that's what I heard, I
don't know." -- December 10 campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: There is no evidence that either Strzok or Page ever obtained or sought a restraining order against the other. Page said on Twitter: "This is a lie. Nothing like this ever happened."
Immigration
Deportations to Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador
"And
Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador -- we signed a very important
agreement with each. When their people come into our country, they
weren't taking them back. Now they take them back and they say, thank
you very much. They weren't taking them back. If we had a murderer from
Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, we want to bring them back -- under
past administrations, they bring them, they said, 'We don't want them.
Don't land your plane with us.' They say, 'Thank you very much. We will
take them back.' Because we've let them know the price is very bad if
they don't do that." -- December 10 campaign rally in Hershey,
Pennsylvania.
Facts First: Trump was mixing up two separate issues. While the Trump administration does have new agreements
with all three countries, those agreements are related to the handling
of people who come to the US seeking asylum, not criminals the US is
seeking to deport. In 2016, just prior to Trump's presidency, none of
the three countries was on the list
of countries that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) considered
"recalcitrant" (uncooperative) in accepting the return of their citizens
from the US.
Randy Capps,
director of research for US programs at the Migration Policy Institute, a
Washington think tank, confirmed that Trump was "confusing" different
things. Capps said Trump was "way off base" on this claim.
Capps noted that in the 2016 fiscal year, the last full year before Trump took office, ICE reported
that Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador ranked second, third and
fourth for the country of citizenship of people being removed from the
US. The same was true in the 2017 fiscal year,
which encompassed the end of Barack Obama's presidency and the
beginning of Trump's. ICE did not identify any widespread problems with
deportations to these countries.
In July 2016, ICE deputy director Daniel Ragsdale testified
to Congress that there were some exceptions to the rule: "It is
important to note that while countries may generally be cooperative,
sometimes they may delay or refuse the repatriation of certain
individuals. For example, El Salvador, a country that is generally
cooperative, has recently delayed the issuance of a number of travel
documents where there is no legal impediment to removal."
So
Trump could have accurately made a less sweeping claim. But he was
exaggerating when he declared that the three countries simply "weren't
taking them back."
An arrest in Maryland
"Since
Montgomery County, Maryland declared itself a sanctuary jurisdiction in
July, we have already identified nine illegal aliens who have been
arrested for rape, sexual assault, including a 26-year-old man charged
with raping and viciously strangling a young, wonderful woman, who was
entering her apartment, innocently entering her apartment. She was raped
and killed, strangled to death." -- December 10 campaign rally in
Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: The victim in this August case was not killed. The Washington Post reported
that the victim "was taken to a hospital for her injuries. Police said
in a statement that 'doctors advised detectives that the severity of the
strangulation the victim suffered could have resulted in her death.'"
Trump
was correct that nine undocumented immigrants have been charged with
rape or sexual assault in this Maryland county since July, according to
local media reports and a September tweet from Ken Cuccinelli, acting deputy secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.
Democrats
Beto O'Rourke and religion
"We
had one candidate who turned out not to be too good a candidate, right?
Beto. Beto. Remember? So he wanted to get rid of religion -- the
Bible." -- December 10 campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: Unsuccessful
Democratic presidential candidate Beto O'Rourke, the former Texas
congressman, never proposed to "get rid of religion" or the Bible.
O'Rourke sparked controversy by proposing
to strip tax-exempt status from religious institutions, including
churches, that oppose same-sex marriage. O'Rourke said "there can be no
reward, no benefit, no tax break" for any entity "that denies the full
human rights and the full civil rights of every single one of us."
Trump
is free to criticize O'Rourke's proposal as a violation of the First
Amendment, but it's a major exaggeration to claim that proposing to
strip certain churches' tax exemptions is the same as proposing to
eradicate religion or the Bible.
Elizabeth Warren's wealth tax
"You're
not going to vote for Pocahontas, I can tell you that. You're not going
to vote for the wealth tax. 'Yeah, let's take 100% of your wealth
away.'" -- December 7 speech to the Israeli American Council National Summit
Facts First: Warren is not proposing to take away 100% of anyone's wealth. Her wealth tax proposal
is for "an annual 2% tax on every dollar of net worth above $50 million
and a 6% tax on every dollar of net worth above $1 billion."
Elizabeth Warren's health care plan
"Her
ridiculous plan would cost $52 trillion. That's more money than we take
in in one year, two years, three years, four years, five years, six
years -- about seven years. That's for one year, $52 trillion." --
December 10 campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: Warren's campaign says her Medicare-for-All proposal would require a total of $52 trillion in health care spending over 10 years, not one year. (The Urban Institute think tank estimates
that $52 trillion is also the amount that would be spent on health care
under current law.) Trump is free to question the Warren campaign's
financial assumptions, but $52 trillion for one year is inaccurate.
Trump
was also inaccurate when he suggested that $52 trillion is "about seven
years" worth of federal revenue. The federal government took in $3.3 trillion
in 2018; at that level, $52 trillion would actually represent about 16
years' worth of federal receipts. Trump might have been attempting to
refer to how Warren's proposal would require $20.5 trillion in new spending
by the federal government over the next decade; that is roughly six
years of federal revenues at the present level, so Trump would be much
closer to correct.
Warren has proposed
a variety of ways to generate the $20.5 trillion, including higher
taxes on wealthy people, increased corporate taxes, improved tax
enforcement, new employer fees, and new payments from state and local
governments.
Economy
The stock market
Trump
was asked about the Dow falling 400 points early that day, December 3,
in apparent response to comments he made earlier in the day about the
state of trade talks with China. He responded, "Well it's up -- let me
tell you. We took it up -- it was about at 16,000 or 15,000. And now
it's almost at 30,000. It's gonna be at 30,000." -- December 3 exchange
with reporters at meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
Facts First: The
Dow has increased by more than a third during Trump's presidency, but
he was exaggerating where it started. The Dow opened (and closed) just
under 20,000 points on the day of his inauguration, not at 15,000 or
16,000. If you go back to the day of his election, as Trump prefers to
do, the Dow was over 18,000 points.
The Dow closed over 27,000 on December 3.
November jobs expectations
"The
numbers came out, as you saw on Friday, with a number of jobs that
nobody believed possible: 200 -- well over 200,000. They were thinking
about 50. Some people thought it would be 50,000, 60,000." -- December 9
remarks at roundtable on school choice
"It
was announced that 266,000 jobs were added in November. And that
shattered all expectations. They were thinking about 70,000. They were
thinking about 90,000 -- which isn't so bad. Two hundred and sixty-six
thousand." -- December 7 speech to the Israeli American Council National
Summit/
"Just last week, we
announced that we smashed expectations and created 266,000 jobs in
November -- a number that was unthinkable a day before. A day before,
they were guessing, 'Would it be 80? Would it be 90? Would it be 160?'
Somebody said -- an optimist. And this was 266,000..." -- December 12 speech at White House Summit on Child Care and Paid Leave
Facts First: While
the number of jobs added by the US economy in November, 266,000, did
exceed analysts' expectations, those expectations were much higher than
Trump claimed. The median estimate
from economists surveyed by Reuters was 180,000 jobs added -- and the
lowest of the economists' estimates was 120,000 jobs added. (So one of
Trump's many figures, the "160,000," does fall within the range of
estimates.)
Trump did not
specify who he was talking about when he repeatedly referred to an
unnamed "they"; it is certainly plausible that somebody somewhere
thought that a mere 50,000, 60,000, 70,000, 80,000 or 90,000 jobs would
be added. But Trump created the impression that he was talking about the
expectations of economic experts.
The currencies of Brazil and Argentina
"Brazil
and Argentina have been presiding over a massive devaluation of their
currencies. which is not good for our farmers. Therefore, effective
immediately, I will restore the Tariffs on all Steel & Aluminum that
is shipped into the U.S. from those countries. The Federal Reserve
should likewise act so that countries, of which there are many, no
longer take advantage of our strong dollar by further devaluing their
currencies." -- December 2 tweet
Facts First: While the Brazilian real and the Argentinian peso had declined
against the US dollar in the weeks prior to Trump's announcement, and
for the year, experts say there was no evidence either country had been
intentionally devaluing either currency. To the contrary, "the evidence
shows that Argentina and Brazil have been trying to do the opposite of
what President Trump accuses," said Paul Angelo, fellow for Latin
America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "In fact, this year
alone the Brazilian government has repeatedly intervened
to slow devaluation of the real and Argentina has spent hundreds of
millions of dollars in August trying to shield the peso following a political shock."
The Wall Street Journal reported
after Trump's announcement: "...few economists and analysts agreed with
Mr. Trump's claim that the two countries have been manipulating their
currencies...Neither Brazil nor Argentina has been featured in the U.S.
Treasury Department's currency report, the official vehicle for
designating nations as manipulators." Bloomberg reported:
"While it's true the Brazilian real and Argentine peso have weakened
against the greenback this year, policy makers in Brasilia and Buenos
Aires appear worried rather than happy about this. 'Trump should be
thanking Brazil and Argentina,' said Andre Perfeito, chief economist at
Necton, a Sao Paulo-based brokerage. 'Their governments have adopted
measures that seek to rein in the depreciation of their currencies.'"
Russian energy production
Claiming
that Russia wishes he had lost the election, Trump said, "We are now
number one in the world in energy; Russia's number three. We're beating
out Russia and Saudi Arabia." -- December 10 campaign rally in Hershey,
Pennsylvania
Facts First: Russia
was second in the world in petroleum and natural gas production every
year from 2014 through 2018, far exceeding the production of third-place
Saudi Arabia in each of those years, according to an August report from the US government's Energy Information Administration. (Russia was in first place from 2008 through 2013.)
If
you include "biofuels, and refinery processing gain, among other liquid
fuels" in the count, as the Energy Information Administration did in a
2017 analysis,
the US became number one in the world in 2012, not 2014. Regardless,
Russia has consistently been in second place by this broader measure as
well since the US became number .
No
matter which measure you use, Trump's use of the word "now" is arguably
misleading. The US has been number one since the presidency of Barack
Obama, whom Trump has repeatedly accused of perpetrating a "war on
American energy."
The American and Chinese economies
"We're
much larger than China now, because we've gone up and they've gone
down." -- December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting with Canadian
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
Facts First:
The US has not just "now" become a larger economy than China; that was
also the case before Trump took office. And China continues to close the
gap: while China's economy is growing at its slowest rate since 1992, It is still reporting growth greater than that of the US.
China reported 6% economic growth in the third quarter of 2019; the US reported
2.1% third-quarter growth. China's official figures are not always
reliable, but there is no doubt that growth is occurring. In October,
the International Monetary Fund predicted 6.1% growth from China in 2019 and 5.8% growth in 2020.
Global warming and the oceans
Mocking
fears about global warming, Trump said, "The ocean's going to rise. One
eighth of an inch within the next 250 years. We're going to be wiped
out!" -- December 10 campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: Trump
was greatly understating scientists' estimates of rising sea levels.
Even in 80 years, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change expects sea levels to rise by a foot or more.
As FactCheck.org noted, a September report
from the UN panel estimated an increase in the global mean sea level by
about 1 feet to 2 feet over 1986-2005 levels by 2100 -- even under a
lower-carbon-emissions scenario; the report projected much higher
increases in a scenario in which emissions were higher. "Under a higher
emissions scenario, the report said, 2 to 3.5 feet of sea level rise are
expected," FactCheck.org noted. "By 2300 -- three decades after the
president's timeframe -- sea level rise is likely to be 2 to 3.5 feet,
even under lower emissions, according to the IPCC report. With higher
emissions, the likely range is between a whopping 7.5 to 18 feet."
Here are the claims Trump made over these two weeks that we have previously fact checked in one of these weekly roundups:
Ukraine and impeachment
The timing of Rep. Adam Schiff's comments
"He
made up my statement, because -- see, I did one thing very good. As
soon as I heard about this deal, I released my statement immediately.
But he had already made horrible statements." -- December 10 campaign
rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: Trump
can reasonably criticize Schiff for Schiff's comments at a House
Intelligence Committee hearing in September; as we've written before,
Schiff's mix of near-quotes from Trump's phone call with Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky, his own analysis, and supposed "parody"
was at the very least confusing. But Schiff spoke the day after Trump
released the rough transcript, not before Trump released the transcript.
The accuracy of the whistleblower
"By
the way, the whistleblower: the whistleblower defrauded our country,
because the whistleblower wrote something that was totally untrue...They
wrote something totally different from what I said." -- December 10
campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
"The whistleblower wrote a totally false statement. So it's a fraud." -- December 13 exchange with reporters at meeting with Paraguayan President Description Mario Abdo BenÃtez
Facts First: The
whistleblower's account of Trump's call with Zelensky has largely been
proven accurate. In fact, the rough transcript released by Trump himself
showed that the whistleblower's three primary allegations about the
call were correct or very close to correct. (You can read a full fact
check here.)
The rough transcript
"They
didn't even know, probably, that we had it transcribed, professionally
transcribed, word-for-word transcribed, so beautiful." -- December 10
campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: The
document released by the White House explicitly says, on the first
page, that it is not an exact transcript of Trump's phone call with
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The
National Security Council's top Ukraine expert, Lt. Col. Alexander
Vindman, testified to Congress that he tried to make edits to the
document to include two things that were said on the call but not
included in the document. Vindman testified that the document was "substantively correct," but he made clear that it was not a verbatim account.
The whistleblower being "gone"
"Where's
the whistleblower? He's disappeared, he's gone...the whistleblower is
gone. He flew the coop because he reported incorrectly..." -- December
10 campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
"But
once I released it, all of a sudden the second whistleblower
disappeared. The first whistleblower, who was all set to testify, he --
all of a sudden, he becomes this saint-like figure that they don't need
him anymore. The one that everybody wanted to see, including Schiff, was
the whistleblower. Once I released the text of what happened -- the
transcript -- that was the end. Everybody disappeared. So now there's no
informer. There's no second whistleblower. Everybody has gone." --
December 13 exchange with reporters at meeting with Paraguayan President
Description Mario Abdo BenÃtez
Facts First: There
is no evidence that either the first whistleblower (who filed the
complaint about Trump's dealings with Ukraine) or the second
whistleblower (whose lawyers said they had firsthand information
corroborating claims made by the first whistleblower) are now somehow
"gone," let alone that they are "gone" because the first whistleblower
was shown to be inaccurate.
"The whistleblowers have not vanished," Bradley Moss, a colleague of Mark Zaid, a lawyer for the two whistleblowers, said on Twitter in October, when Trump made another version of this claim.
The first whistleblower's lawyers, Zaid and Andrew Bakaj, wrote
in the Washington Post in October: "Because our client has no
additional information about the president's call, there is no
justification for exposing their identity and all the risks that would
follow."
The existence of the second whistleblower -- who never planned to file a separate whistleblower complaint -- was revealed after Trump released the rough transcript of his call with Zelensky, not before.
European assistance to Ukraine
"The
other thing nobody remembers and nobody likes to talk about -- and I
talk about it all the time -- is why isn't Germany, why isn't France,
why aren't other European countries paying? Because we're paying. The
suckers... Why aren't European countries paying? Why isn't France paying
a lot of money? Why is it always the United States?" -- December 13
exchange with reporters at meeting with Paraguayan President Description
Mario Abdo BenÃtez
Facts First: European
countries, including France and Germany, have provided hundreds of
millions of dollars' worth of assistance to Ukraine since Russia's
invasion in 2014.
Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged European "help" during his
meeting with Trump at the United Nations in September, though he said
the world's efforts had been inadequate so far: "And, I'm sorry, but we
don't need help; we need support. Real support. And we thank -- thank
everybody, thank all of the European countries; they each help us. But
we also want to have more -- more."
You can read a full fact check here.
Zelensky's comments
"Breaking
News: The President of Ukraine has just again announced that President
Trump has done nothing wrong with respect to Ukraine and our
interactions or calls." -- December 2 tweet
"The Ukrainian president came out and said, very strongly, that 'President Trump did absolutely nothing wrong.'" -- December 2 exchange with reporters before Marine One departure
"I
had a very, very good conversation with the head of Ukraine. And, by
the way, yesterday, he came out again and reaffirmed again that we had a
very, very respectful, good conversation -- that President Trump did
nothing wrong." -- December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting with
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
Facts First: Trump was mischaracterizing Zelensky's comments in an interview published by Time magazine. Zelensky did not say Trump "did nothing wrong."
Asked
about "this issue of the quid pro quo" with regard to US military aid
to Ukraine and the investigations Trump and his allies wanted, Zelensky
responded, "Look, I never talked to the President from the position of a
quid pro quo. That's not my thing." But Zelensky continued: "I don't
want us to look like beggars. But you have to understand. We're at war.
If you're our strategic partner, then you can't go blocking anything for
us. I think that's just about fairness. It's not about a quid pro quo.
It just goes without saying."
Trump
is entitled to tout Zelensky's statement about not talking to Trump
"from the position of a quid pro quo," but those words aren't equivalent
to Zelensky saying Trump did nothing wrong.
Impeachment hearings
Trump
complained about an impeachment hearing that the House Judiciary
Committee had scheduled, then said, "For the hearings, we don't get a
lawyer, we don't get any witnesses." -- December 3 exchange with
reporters at meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
Facts First: Unlike
the impeachment inquiry hearings that were held in November by the
House Intelligence Committee, Trump was allowed to have his lawyer
participate in the House Judiciary Committee proceedings in December.
Trump declined the offer to have a lawyer appear at the particular
hearing he was complaining about here, during which four constitutional
law scholars appeared. Also, a Republican lawyer was permitted to
question witnesses at the House Intelligence Committee hearings, though
Trump's own lawyers were not.
White
House counsel Pat Cipollone said in a letter to Democratic House
Judiciary Committee chairman Rep. Jerrold Nadler that "an invitation to
an academic discussion with law professors does not begin to provide the
President with any semblance of a fair process."
Though
the Democrats got to control the witness lists, since they hold the
House majority, the House Intelligence Committee did hear testimony from
three former officials whom Republicans had requested as witnesses:
Kurt Volker, the former special representative for Ukraine; Tim
Morrison, former National Security Council senior director for Europe
and Russia; and David Hale, undersecretary of state for political
affairs.
Economy
Ivanka Trump and jobs
"Fourteen
million people she's gotten jobs for, where she would go into Walmart,
she would go into our great companies and say, 'They really want help.
They really want you to teach them,' because the government can't teach
like the companies can teach. And companies would take a half a million
people, a million people. And her goal when she started it two years ago
was 500,000 jobs; she's done over 14 million." -- December 12 speech at White House Summit on Child Care and Paid Leave
Facts First: Ivanka
Trump has obviously not "gotten jobs for" 14 million people. At the
time, roughly 7 million jobs had been created during the entire Trump
presidency.
Trump was
referring to the White House's Pledge to America's Workers initiative,
in which Ivanka Trump has sought to get companies to commit to providing
"education and training opportunities" for workers. As of Wednesday,
companies had promised
to create 14.4 million opportunities -- but many of these
opportunities are internal training programs, not new jobs. Also, as CNN
has previously reported, many of the companies had already planned
these opportunities before Ivanka Trump launched the initiative.
Unemployment
"We
have the best unemployment numbers and employment numbers. We have the
best numbers we've ever had in our country." -- December 10 exchange with reporters before Marine One departure
Facts First: The
unemployment rates for some demographic groups are at their lowest
levels "ever," but the overall unemployment rate is not -- though it is
indeed impressively low.
The overall rate was 3.5% in November -- the lowest since 1969, with the exception of the 3.5% rate in September, but well above the record 2.5% set in 1953.
Unemployment for women
In two separate instances, Trump said that women's unemployment is "at a record number" and that it is "the lowest in 71 years."
Facts First: The
unemployment rate for women was not a "record," nor the lowest in "71
years." It had been 66 years, not 71 years, since the women's
unemployment rate has been as low as it was in November, 3.5%. (That's if you ignore the 3.4% in September and April.)
The steel industry
"And
the steel companies are doing incredibly well. They were finished." And
"...they were ready to close up -- all of them -- and now they're doing
great." -- December 9 remarks at roundtable on school choice
"But
the steel industry, in particular, was -- we weren't going to have a
steel industry...Everything was closing down." -- December 6 remarks at roundtable on small business and red tape
Facts First: The
US steel industry was not "finished" before Trump imposed his tariffs
on imported steel, nor was "everything" shutting down. While some
American steel companies were struggling, not "all of them" were
anywhere close to closing. In fact, some major companies were thriving.
Bloomberg reported
in an October 2018 fact check: "In fact, U.S. steelmakers Nucor Corp.
and Steel Dynamics Inc. were two of the healthiest commodity companies
in the world before Trump took office."
There
is no doubt that the steel industry had declined from its heyday: the
number of people working in iron and steel mills or in making steel
products fell from more than 250,000 in 1990 to under 150,000 by 2016.
Still, "finished" is an exaggeration. In 2016, the US produced about as much raw steel as it did at various points in the 1980s.
Steel plants
"And
now the steel industry -- if you look at what's going on, the industry
is doing incredibly well. They're building a lot of extensions. They're
building brand-new plants where they never...they never built a new
plant. I mean, they hadn't built one in years, and now they're building
new plants all over the country." -- December 6 remarks at roundtable on
small business and red tape
Facts First: While
some steel plants were closing, being idled or otherwise doing poorly
before Trump took office and before Trump imposed his tariffs on steel
imports, some other plants were being built or expanding at the time.
A
simple Google search brings up numerous 2015 announcements about
planned investments in steel plants. For example, Steel Dynamics announced a $100 million expansion at a mill in Mississippi. Commercial Metals announced a $250 million investment to build a micro-mill in Oklahoma. Nucor and a partner announced a $75 million investment in improvements at a mill in Arkansas. Ferrous CAL announced a $53 million investment in a Michigan plant to make steel for automotive companies.
Energy production
"We
ended the last administration's war on American energy. The United
States is now -- and I said it, and I'll say it all night long, number
one producer of oil and natural gas in the world. And there's nobody
even close." -- December 10 campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: The US has not just "now" become the world's top energy producer: it took the top spot in 2012,
according to the US government's Energy Information Administration --
under the very Obama administration Trump is accusing of perpetrating a
"war" on the industry.
The US
became the top producer of crude oil in particular during Trump's
tenure. "The United States has been the world's top producer of natural
gas since 2009, when US natural gas production surpassed that of Russia,
and it has been the world's top producer of petroleum hydrocarbons
since 2013, when its production exceeded Saudi Arabia's," the Energy
Information Administration says.
Wage growth
"...more
importantly than anything, wages are up for the first time in many,
many years, decades, decades." -- December 10 campaign rally in Hershey,
Pennsylvania
Facts First: Wages have been rising since 2014, using one common measure.
There are various ways to measure wage growth. Median usual weekly earnings, one way that is frequently cited,
began increasing in mid-2014 -- though slowly -- after a decline that
began in the recession year of 2009. Median usual weekly warnings went from $330 per week in the second quarter of 2014 to $349 per week in the fourth quarter of 2016.
Trump
can accurately boast that wage growth during his presidency has been
faster than under Obama, but he is wrong to suggest it was declining
before he took office.
Obama and manufacturing jobs
"And
the previous administration said -- manufacturing -- 'you'd need the
magic wand.' You know, we've all heard the statement. But they basically
said it was a dead business, when in fact it's one of the most
important sets of jobs I think you can have anywhere." -- December 6
remarks at roundtable on small business and red tape
Facts First: Trump's "magic wand" comment was a reference to a remark President Barack Obama made at a PBS town hall
in 2016. Obama scoffed at Trump's promises to bring back what Obama
called "jobs of the past" without providing specifics on how he would do
so. Contrary to Trump's claims, though, Obama didn't say manufacturing
was dead or that new manufacturing jobs could not be created; Obama
boasted of how many manufacturing jobs were being created during his
presidency, saying, "We actually make more stuff, have a bigger
manufacturing base today than we've had in most of our history."
Median household income and energy
"With
President Trump, it (median household income) went up $5,000, but whoa,
whoa, whoa, in less than three years. That's a big thing. Wait. And
then when you add energy savings and you add tax savings, you have
almost a $10,000 gain in three years." -- December 10 campaign rally in
Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: There
is no basis for Trump adding an additional $5,000 to the initial $5,000
in household income growth he is asserting. (That initial $5,000 figure
is based on the findings of a firm called Sentier Research). It is
entirely unclear what Trump is referring to when he talks about "energy
savings"; household energy costs have increased since Trump took office,
as have gasoline costs. (Gasoline costs are lower than they were for
most of Obama's presidency, but higher than they were in 2016.)
You can read a longer fact check here.
China and trade
China's economic performance
In
three separate instances, Trump said that China is having its worst
economic year "in 57 years," "in 56 or 57 years now," and "in at least
57" years, "much more than that."
Facts First: China's second-quarter GDP growth of 6.2% and third-quarter GDP growth of 6% were its worst since 1992,
27 years ago. Trump has repeatedly made clear that he knows that 27
years is the reported figure, but he has added additional years for no
apparent reason.
Who is paying for Trump's tariffs on China
"And
now we're taking in billions of dollars in tariffs. And, by the way,
they're eating it. You know, remember, you used to tell me how it will
cost us -- they're eating that money because they don't want to lose
their supply chains." -- December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting
with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
Facts First: Study after study, including a report
in late November from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has shown
that Americans are bearing the vast majority of the cost of the tariffs.
And it is Americans who make the actual tariff payments.
The history of tariffs on China
"We're
taking in a lot of money. We haven't taken any money from China ever,
and it's coming in now by the billions." -- December 10 campaign rally
in Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: Again,
Americans are paying for these tariffs. Regardless, it's not true that
the US Treasury has never received any money from tariffs on Chinese
products. The US has had tariffs on China for more than two centuries;
FactCheck.org reported
that the US generated an "average of $12.3 billion in custom duties a
year from 2007 to 2016, according to the US International Trade
Commission DataWeb."
The US also "takes" in money from Chinese purchases of US products -- more than $300 billion during Trump's presidency alone.
China's wealth
Trump
said China is "down about $32 trillion" over the last three years. --
December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting with Canadian Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau
Facts First: Trump
was vague about what he meant, but there is no apparent basis for this
figure. (In late November, Trump used different figures: "$24 trillion,"
"probably $25 trillion," and "probably ... $30 or $35 trillion.")
Experts on the Chinese economy rejected previous Trump claims of a $10
trillion drop in Chinese wealth.
George
Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University's China Centre, said,
"I'm afraid I have no idea to what the President is referring and I
dare say neither does he."
The US record at the World Trade Organization
"We
never used to win before me, because, before me, the United States was a
sucker for all of these different organizations. And now they realize
-- the World Trade Organization realizes that my attitude on them: If
they don't treat us fairly, well, I'll tell you someday what will
happen. And we've been winning a lot of cases at the World Trade
Organization. We virtually -- very rarely did we ever win a case. They
took advantage of the United States." -- December 3 exchange with
reporters at meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
Facts First: The
US has long won cases at the World Trade Organization, and there is no
evidence that WTO adjudicators have suddenly changed their behavior.
Trump's own Council of Economic Advisers said in a report in February 2018 that the US had won 86% of the cases it has brought since 1995. The global average was 84%.
A Bloomberg Law review
in March found that the US success rate in cases it brings to the WTO
had increased very slightly since Trump took office, from 84.8% in 2016
to 85.4%.
The trade deficit with the European Union
"But
we have a very unfair trade situation, where the US loses a lot of
money for many, many years with the European Union -- billions and
billions of dollars. I mean, to be specific, over $150 billion a year."
-- December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting with French President
Emmanuel Macron
Facts First: The
trade deficit with the European Union was $114.6 billion in 2018,
$101.2 billion in 2017, $92.5 billion in 2016. The deficit was $169.6
billion in 2018 if you only count trade in goods and ignore trade in
services. But Trump, as usual, failed to specify that he was using this
more limited measure.
We'll ignore Trump's characterization of trade deficits as losses, which is sharply disputed by many economists.
Immigration
Democrats and borders
Trump said three times that Democrats support "open borders."
Facts First: Even
2020 Democratic presidential candidates who advocate the
decriminalization of the act of illegally entering the country, such as
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Housing and Urban
Development Secretary Julián Castro, do not support completely
unrestricted migration, as Trump suggests.
Mexican soldiers and the border
"...and Mexico is now giving us 27,000 soldiers at our border..." -- December 10 campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
"Right
now, we have 27,000 Mexican soldiers on our southern border telling
people, 'You can't come in.'" -- December 7 speech to the Israeli
American Council National Summit
Facts First: Mexico has deployed around 27,000 troops, but Trump exaggerated how many are being stationed near the US border in particular.
CNN reported
on November 2: "Nearly 15,000 troops are deployed to Mexico's northern
border, where they've set up 20 checkpoints, Mexican Defense Minister
Luis Cresencio Sandoval said last week at a press briefing on the
country's security strategy. At the southern border, 12,000 troops are
deployed and have set up 21 checkpoints."
Acting US Customs and Border Protection commissioner Mark Morgan has offered similar numbers, telling reporters in September that 10,000 of approximately 25,000 troops were on Mexico's southern border.
Foreign and military affairs
Obama and the ISIS caliphate
"We've
defeated the ISIS caliphate. Nobody thought we could do that so
quickly. I did it very quickly. When I came in, it was virtually 100%.
And I knocked it down to 0. I knocked it down to 0." -- December 3
exchange with reporters at meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens
Stoltenberg
"Al-Baghdadi created a
caliphate bigger than the state of Ohio, think of that, that's a big
caliphate. And we now have taken 100% of the caliphate...and with Obama
you did nothing, you did nothing, but get your ass kicked." -- December
10 campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: Trump
is free to criticize Obama's conduct of the war against ISIS, but it's
not true that "nothing" was accomplished under Obama in the fight to
eradicate the terror group's self-proclaimed "caliphate," nor that ISIS
possessed "virtually 100%" of this territory when Trump took office.
Nicholas
Heras, Middle East Security Fellow at the Center for a New American
Security, said that "at the time of his inauguration in January 2017,
the Obama administration had regained close to 50% of ISIS's would-be
Caliphate."
Estimates of pre-Trump
progress against ISIS vary -- some put the Obama-era progress closer to
a third of former ISIS territory -- but Heras' estimate roughly squares
with news reports
from the end of the Obama era. Regardless of the precise figure, there
is no doubt that ISIS had lost a substantial portion of its land
holdings under Obama.
The cost of moving the embassy to Jerusalem
"So,
two years ago, I recognized the true capital of Israel, and we opened
the American embassy in Jerusalem. And we got it built. They were
thinking anywhere, for one billion to two billion dollars. I did it for
$350,000." -- December 11 speech at Hanukkah reception and signing of executive order against anti-Semitism
Four
days pror, Trump told a lengthy version of this story, saying he was
initially told the Jerusalem embassy project would cost "$2 billion" or
"up to $2 billion" but managed to get it built for "less than 500,000
bucks." -- December 7 speech to the Israeli American Council National
Summit
Facts First: The State Department awarded
a $21.2 million contract in 2018 for a company to design and build
"compound security upgrades" related to Trump's decision to turn the
existing facility into an embassy. While the initial modification that
allowed the building to open as an embassy cost just under $400,000,
that was not the final total.
The size of the Iran deal
In
three separate claims, Trump said President Barack Obama "gave $150
billion" to Iran, "paid $150 billion" to Iran, and gave Iran a "$150
Billion gift."
Facts First: Trump
was wrong about the "$150 billion": the sum in question was Iranian
money frozen in foreign financial institutions because of sanctions, not
US government money -- and experts say the total was significantly
lower than $150 billion. You can read a fuller fact check here.
The
Obama administration did send Iran $1.7 billion to settle a decades-old
dispute over a purchase of US military goods Iran made before its
government was overthrown in the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
Military spending by NATO members
"It
was going down for close to 20 years. If you look at a chart, it was
like a rollercoaster down, nothing up. And that was going on for a long
time. You wouldn't have had a NATO if you kept going that way." --
December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting with NATO Secretary
General Jens Stoltenberg
"So NATO,
which was really heading in the wrong direction three years ago — it was
heading down. If you look at a graph, it was to a point where I don't
think they could have gone on much longer." -- December 3 exchange with
reporters at meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron
Facts First: Military spending by NATO members had increased for two years prior to Trump's presidency. According to the latest NATO figures released in November, spending increased by 1.7% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016.
US military spending, part 1
"Now
we have spent two and a half trillion dollars on rebuilding our
military. And we have a military that's the most advanced, the most
powerful, by far, of any in the world. Two and a half trillion dollars.
We rebuilt our military." -- December 7 speech to the Israeli American
Council National Summit
Facts First: Trump
was exaggerating. Defense spending for fiscal years 2017, 2018 and 2019
was $2.05 trillion, and that includes more than three-and-a-half months
of Obama's tenure, since the 2017 fiscal year began in October 2016.
Todd
Harrison, director of defense budget analysis at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies, said he thinks Trump must have been
including military funding for the 2020 fiscal year to get to the "$2.5
trillion" figure -- but the 2020 fiscal year just started on October 1,
and Harrison noted that the defense appropriation has not yet been
approved by Congress.
US military spending, part 2
Trump said on two occasions that the US is spending "4 to 4.3%" of Gross Domestic Product on defense.
Facts First: The
US is expected to spend 3.42% of GDP on defense in 2019, according to
NATO estimates issued in November -- similar to its 2018 spending level.
Ammunition
Trump
said that when he took office, the US military "was in trouble." He
added, "We didn't have ammunition." -- December 3 exchange with
reporters at meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
Facts First: According
to military leaders, there was a shortfall in certain kinds of
munitions, particularly precision-guided bombs, late in the Obama
presidency and early in the Trump presidency. But the claim that "we
didn't have ammunition" is a significant exaggeration. Military leaders
did not say that they had completely run out of any kind of bomb, let
alone ammunition in general.
You can read a full fact check of Trump's claims about munitions levels here.
ISIS prisoners
"But
many are from France, many are from Germany, many are from UK. They're
mostly from Europe." -- December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting
with French President Emmanuel Macron
Facts First: French President Emmanuel Macron correctly told Trump that it is not true that "most" ISIS prisoners in Syria are from Europe.
James Jeffrey, Trump's special envoy to the anti-ISIS coalition, said
on August 1 that roughly 8,000 of about 10,000 terrorist fighters being
held in northeastern Syria are Iraqi or Syrian nationals; there were
"about 2,000 ISIS foreign fighters" from all other countries. Trump
himself tweeted in February to ask that European countries take back "over 800" ISIS fighters captured in Syria.
Macron
fact-checked Trump to his face, saying: "The very large number of
fighters you have on the ground are ISIS fighters coming from Syria,
from Iraq, and the region. It is true that you have foreign fighters
coming from Europe, but this is a tiny minority of the overall problem
we have in the region."
An agreement with South Korea
Trump
claimed that South Korea had agreed to an increase of "almost $500
million" in its payments to the US for the cost of having US troops
based in the country. He said that this increase brought the South
Korean payment "close to" $1 billion from a previous $500 million. --
December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting with NATO Secretary
General Jens Stoltenberg
Facts First: Trump
was correct about the new total but exaggerated the size of the
increase, as he has repeatedly on this subject in the past. As the New
York Times reported
in February when debunking an earlier version of Trump's "$500 million"
claim: "Under the one-year deal, this year South Korea will pay 1.04
trillion won, or $925 million, an increase of $70 million from last
year's $855 million."
Trump is now trying to get South Korea to agree to a much larger increase for 2020. American and South Korean officials said this week that they have so far failed to reach an agreement and that the next round of talks is scheduled for January.
Trump and Brexit
"You
know that I was a fan of Brexit. I called it the day before. I was
opening up Turnberry the day before Brexit...And they asked me whether
or not Brexit would happen. I said 'yes,' and everybody smiled and they
laughed. And I said, 'Yes, it's going to happen, in my opinion.' It was
just my opinion. The next day, they had the election, and I was right."
-- December 3 exchange with reporters at meeting with NATO Secretary
General Jens Stoltenberg
Facts First: Trump was not even at Turnberry the day before the vote; he visited the club and spoke to the press the day after
the vote. Trump did predict Brexit in March 2016; the day before the
vote three months later, however, he made no prediction. He said in an
interview that day with Maria Bartiromo of Fox Business, "I don't think
anybody should listen to me," because "I haven't really focused on it
very much," but that his "inclination" would be that Britain should vote
to leave the European Union.
Iran's economy
"Their
GDP went down 25% this year. Twenty-five. Nobody has ever even heard of
that." -- December 7 speech to the Israeli American Council National
Summit
Facts First: Trump was exaggerating. While Iran's economy is shrinking, the Statistical Center of Iran reported that the country's GDP fell by 4.9% in the year 2018-2019.
Experts
say there is no apparent basis for Trump's "25%" figure even though
Iran's official economic data is less reliable than official data in the
US.
"It's still not iron-clad
stuff, but if the situation was anywhere near 25% decline then the
official stats would at least be in the teens. This is also why folks
cross-check these numbers with independent and global institutional data
(such as IMF's). My suspicion is that it's closer to 13-15% decrease,
which still puts it a good 10% points below Trump's claim," Hussein
Banai, an assistant professor who studies Iran at Indiana University's
School of International Studies, said in an email in October, when Trump
made another version of this claim.
The International Monetary Fund has forecast
a 9.5% contraction in Iran's economy this year -- down from an earlier
estimate of a 6% contraction, but still not 20% or 25%. The World Bank
has forecast an 8.7% contraction in the 2019-2020 period.
Environment
Wind power
"Those
windmills, wah wah wah [windmill sound]. 'Darling, I want to watch
television tonight and there's no damn wind. What do I do? I want to
watch the election results, darling, there's no wind, the damn wind just
isn't blowing like it used to because of global warming, I think. I
think it's global warming.'" -- December 10 campaign rally in Hershey,
Pennsylvania
Facts First: Using
wind power as part of a mix of power sources does not cause power
outages even when the wind isn't blowing, as the federal Department of
Energy explains
on its website. "Studies have shown that the grid can accommodate large
penetrations of variable renewable power without sacrificing
reliability, and without the need for 'backup' generation," the
Department of Energy says.
Air quality
"Look,
I want clean air. I want clean water, crystal clean. I want -- and
that's what we have at a record level. Our air and our water are cleaner
now than it's ever been, OK, with all that we're doing." -- December 10
campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: By several measures, US air was cleaner under Obama
than it has been under Trump. Three of the six types of pollutants
identified by the Clean Air Act as toxic to human health were more
prevalent in the air as of 2018 than they were before Trump took office,
according to Environmental Protection Agency data.
Additionally,
there were more "unhealthy air days" for sensitive groups in 2018 than
in 2016 -- 799 days across the 35 American cities surveyed by the EPA,
up from 702. Though there were significantly more "unhealthy air days"
in Obama's first term than there have been in Trump's, the lowest amount
of unhealthy air days -- 598 -- occurred in 2014 under Obama.
Judicial vacancies
"We
will soon have 182 federal judges, including court of appeals, nobody
can believe it. All because Barack Obama gave us 142 empty seats." --
December 10 campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: Trump
exaggerated. According to Russell Wheeler, a visiting fellow at the
Brookings Institution who tracks judicial appointments, there were 103
vacancies on district and appeals courts on Jan. 1, 2017, just before
Trump took office, plus a vacancy on the Supreme Court.
Pre-existing conditions
"We will strongly protect patients with pre-existing conditions." -- December 10 campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania
Facts First: We
usually don't fact check promises, but this one has already proved
untrue. The Trump administration and congressional Republicans have
repeatedly put forward bills
and filed lawsuits that would weaken Obamacare's protections for people
with pre-existing conditions. Trump is currently supporting a
Republican lawsuit
that is seeking to declare all of Obamacare void. He has not issued a
plan to reinstate the law's protections for people with pre-existing
conditions if the suit succeeds.
The government's land holdings
"Secretary
Dave Bernhardt. Where is David? David is the largest landlord in the
country by a factor of about 50. By a -- when we think we big landlords,
he controls half of the United States, actually. Secretary of the
Interior." -- December 11 speech at Hanukkah reception
Facts First: We
know Trump was speaking informally here, but "half of the United
States" is a significant exaggeration. The Congressional Research
Service reported in 2017:
"The federal government owns roughly 640 million acres, about 28% of
the 2.27 billion acres of land in the United States." The land is
managed by the Department of the Interior and the Department of
Agriculture.
Road approval times
"...to
build a road can take 22 years to get approvals...And we've got that
process down to four and a half years. It's going to be -- I think it's
going to be two years. We're going to try and get it down to almost one
year." -- December 6 remarks at roundtable on small business and red
tape
Facts First: There is no evidence Trump has reduced the approval time for federal road approvals.
This version of Trump's claim was more accurate than his usual one. Though he has repeatedly
claimed, inaccurately, that he has gotten the approval time down to two
years or less, he acknowledged here that the approval time is
significantly longer than that.
Nonetheless,
he was wrong when he claimed that the current approval time represents a
Trump-era improvement. According to the Federal Highway
Administration's National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) page,
the department's median environmental impact statement completion time
was 47 months in 2018, up from 46 months in 2017 and 44 months in 2016.
(There is no apparent basis for Trump's "22 years" claim; he might be
referring to some particular exceptional case.)
We
asked the Department of Transportation if we are missing something, but
we did not receive a response. We will update this item if we receive
any new information.
Approval among Republicans
Trump
claimed five times to have a "95%" approval rating among Republicans.
On four of those occasions, he said this was "a record." He twice
claimed that Ronald Reagan is in second place at "87."
Facts First: Trump's
approval rating among Republicans is very high, regularly in the 80s
and sometimes creeping into the 90s, but it has not been 95% in any
recent major poll we could find.
Trump was at 81% approval with Republicans in an Ipsos/Reuters poll conducted December 9-10, 85% in a Fox News poll conducted December 8-11, 91% in a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll conducted December 9-11, 92% in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted December 4-9.
Reagan does not hold the record for Republican approval, and his peak was higher than 87%. Gallup's website
features data on approval rating by party for every president since
Harry Truman; George W. Bush hit 99% in Gallup polling after the 9/11
terrorist attacks of 2001. His father, George H.W. Bush, hit 97% at the
end of the Gulf War in 1991. Reagan, Richard Nixon, and Dwight
Eisenhower all went higher than 90%.
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