New satellite images show advanced Russian military deployments in Belarus
New satellite images released by a US-based technology company appear to show that Russia's military has advanced deployments at several locations in Belarus, a move likely to concern Ukraine and NATO amid fears that the Kremlin is planning an incursion into Ukrainian territory.
The
deployments are likely linked to joint exercises between Russian and
Belarus forces that are due to begin on Thursday. However, other
photographs show camps being established close to the border with
Ukraine, hundreds of miles from where the exercises are taking place.
Russia
has repeatedly denied it is planning to attack Ukraine, despite
Moscow's massive troop buildup in the region. The Kremlin is believed to
have assembled 70% of the military personnel and weapons on Ukraine's
borders that Russia would need for a full-scale invasion, according to two US officials familiar with Washington's latest intelligence estimates.
However, it is unclear how long it would take Russian forces to ramp up
further, or if they would need full capabilities in order to invade.
The
images from Maxar -- taken Saturday -- are consistent with recently
posted social media videos showing Russian forces moving through Belarus
and creating field camps within 20 miles of the Ukrainian border.
Some
of the imagery shows Belarus' Luninets airfield, where Russian fighter
jets have deployed ahead of the exercises, dubbed Union Resolve 2022.
Photographs show Russian S-400 air defense systems and Su-25 attack
aircraft at the airfield. The Russian Defense Ministry released video on
Saturday of the arrival of the planes at Luninets.
One
of the S-400 battalions has traveled from Khabarovsk in the Russian Far
East, a journey of more than 5,600 miles (9,000 kilometers), according to Zvezda, a Russian Ministry of Defense publication.
Other
photographs from Maxar show Russian forces establishing themselves at
some distance from where the exercises are planned -- including at
Rechitsa, a Belarusian city about 170 miles (270 kilometers) east of
Luninets close to where the borders of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine meet.
The force gathered there includes tanks, howitzers and infantry fighting vehicles.
The
images show that for the first time several tent encampments have been
created at Rechitsa. That development and recent footage from the area
suggest a growing Russian presence there. Videos posted to social media
show Russian troops entertaining local people in Rechitsa, with music
and demonstrations at an event called Two Nations, One History, One
People.
Several
other images from Maxar show a growing Russian presence southwest of
Rechitsa, and within 15 miles (25 kilometers) of the Ukrainian border,
in rural areas close to the town of Yelsk.
Maxar
assesses the deployment near Yelsk to include short-range Iskander
ballistic missiles, which have a range of about 250 miles (400
kilometers.)
Analysts
at IHS/Janes, a military intelligence firm, believe there are elements
of at least three Russian Battalion Tactical Group at Yelsk.
The massive troop buildup has caused alarm among US
and European leaders. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said
Thursday that Moscow's deployment into Belarus is the biggest since the
Cold War.
One
European diplomat called the massing of forces a "big, big worry,"
noting this would be the missing piece that Moscow would need to launch a
quick attack on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, which is less than two
hours from the border of Belarus.
Based on publicly available weather calculations, the optimal time for a Russian invasion
would be while there is a hard ground freeze, so heavy equipment can
readily move. US officials have said Putin would understand he needs to
move by the end of March.
The
White House, however, has stopped saying a potential Russian invasion
is "imminent" due to concerns that the term suggests President Vladimir
Putin has already made a decision to invade Ukraine.
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