Russian invasion runs into stiff resistance, supply lines are a 'definite vulnerability,' US officials say
Lviv, Ukraine and Washington, DC (CNN)Russia's invasion of Ukraine is encountering "stiffer than expected" resistance from the Ukrainian military as well as unexpected difficulties supplying its forces, two senior US officials with direct knowledge tell CNN.
On
the battlefield, Russia is suffering heavier losses in personnel and
armor and aircraft than expected. This is due in part to the fact that
Ukrainian air defenses have performed better than pre-invasion US
intelligence assessments had anticipated. In addition, Russia has yet to
establish air supremacy over Ukraine, a senior dedfense official said,
as the Ukrainian Air Force and air defense systems fight for control of
the airspace.
"Ukrainian
air defenses, including aircraft, do continue to be operable and
continue to engage and deny access to Russian aircraft in places over
the country," the official said.
Without
uncontested control of the skies, it becomes more difficult for an army
on the move to see and strike targets from the air.
Together, these challenges have so far prevented the quick overthrow of major Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv,
which US officials were concerned could play out in a matter of days.
The city of Kharkiv near Ukraine's border with Russia also has not
fallen to invading forces, which officials worried could happen on the
first night of an invasion.
Officials
caution that this picture of the battlefield is just a moment in time,
and the situation on the ground could change very quickly as Russian
forces keep up their assault.
These
officials noted that Russian forces still greatly outnumber Ukrainian
forces, and Russia continues to maneuver these forces into position
around major urban centers. It's also unclear how much of the slower
movement can be attributed to the logistical challenge of moving such a
large force.
The
Ukrainian military has a number of different anti-aircraft weapons,
including radar-guided and heat-seeking missiles, as well as
anti-aircraft guns, according to IHS Janes. The US has also provided the
Ukrainian military with Stinger anti-aircraft missiles in recent weeks,
as have other NATO allies.
As
of Saturday evening in Ukraine, the US had not seen any indication that
the Russian military has taken control over any Ukrainian cities, the
official said, even as Russian forces have moved to surround some
population centers, including Kyiv.
Keeping
Russia's large invasion force supplied with fuel and ammunition has
also proved difficult. As one senior US official explained, Russia
anticipated a fast victory and may have neglected to plan for sufficient
resupply of its forces. Supply lines, this official explained, are a
"definite vulnerability."
"What
we assess now is that he had to commit a bit more logistics and
sustainment, in fuel specifically, than what we believe they had planned
to do this early in the operation," said one of the officials.
Russia's
forces launched their invasion of Ukraine early Thursday morning, with
missiles landing in cities across the country. US officials have said
Moscow's goal is to take Kyiv and "decapitate" the government led by
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Zelensky turned down an offer from the US
to evacuate from Kyiv, the Ukraine Embassy in Britain wrote Saturday on
Twitter. Zelensky has posted videos on social media showing he's
remained in Ukraine.
"The
world has seen that Ukrainians are powerful, Ukrainians are courageous,
they're on their native land, and they're never going to give it up to
anyone. They will never betray it," he said in an address Saturday.
Russia has spun their slow advance in Ukraine as a stop to allow time for negotiations, not a military setback.
On
Saturday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said its troops have been
ordered to resume their offensive "in all directions," after a
suspension was ordered for negotiations with the Ukrainian government.
The ministry said the offensive was ordered to continue after Ukraine
abandoned the consultations.
A Ukrainian presidential adviser denied in the early hours Saturday that Ukraine had refused to negotiate.
"They
are having problems," a NATO official said of the Russian forces,
pointing to the alliance's latest intelligence. "They lack diesel, they
are proceeding way too slow and morale is obviously an issue."
Asked
whether the Russians are likely to intensify their efforts, the
official said they have no choice. "They are way behind schedule," the
official said. "This is getting out of hand for them, every additional
day is very painful."
Former
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who has also remained in Kyiv,
said in an interview Saturday on CNN that the Ukrainian military has
displayed "exceptional heroism" but that the country still needs more
help from its allies in receiving weapons like anti-tank missiles.
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