Vladimir Putin is facing stiffer opposition than expected -- both inside and outside Ukraine
Five days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it seems things haven't gone exactly to plan for Vladimir Putin so far.
Western intelligence officials briefed repeatedly over the weekend that Russian forces have encountered "stiffer than expected" resistance from an outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian military.
Russia has thus far failed to take key cities across Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv. On Sunday, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian advance on a strategic airfield near Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, which has been under near-constant attack.
In addition to a fierce fightback from Ukrainian forces and civilians, the Russian invasion has suffered logistical challenges, with soldiers on the front line running short of fuel, ammunition and food.
"They are having problems," a NATO official said
of the Russian forces, pointing to the alliance's latest intelligence.
"They lack diesel, they are proceeding way too slow and morale is
obviously an issue."
But a senior US defense official told reporters on Sunday that Russia has only used two-thirds of the total combat power applied to the mission, leaving a significant amount of forces available to press the offensive.
And on Monday, a miles-long convoy of Russian military vehicles was bearing down on the Ukrainian capital, while Kyiv's intelligence also suggests Belarus is prepared to join the Russian invasion, according to a Ukrainian official.
Representatives from Ukraine and Russia were meeting Monday on the Belarusian border. In those talks, Ukraine will insist on an "immediate ceasefire" and the withdrawal of Russian troops -- though, realistically, no one is expecting that to happen.
Putin,
it seems, hasn't just misjudged Ukraine's ability to defend itself, but
also just how hard a line the international community would take
against Russia in the event of an invasion.
For
years, the Russian president has faced very little pushback from the
West over his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, his brutal support
for the Syrian regime and acts of aggression in other countries.
For
all their strong words of condemnation for Putin and his regime,
Western countries still bought gas from Russia, offered a safe haven to
Russian oligarchs and retained relatively normal diplomatic relations
with Moscow.
But
this time around -- despite a few early rocky patches which saw Western
nations accused of not hitting Russia hard enough -- Putin has faced an
unusually united Western alliance.
From
unprecedented sanctions that are already hurting the Russian economy to
international sport slowly turning on Moscow, Russia's international
pariah status becomes more acute by the hour.
The economic pain will only get worse as time goes on. The ruble lost about 20% of its value against
the dollar on Monday afternoon, and Russia's central bank has raised
interest rates from 9.5% to 20%, a move that will hit Russian citizens
in their pockets.,
Those same citizens might soon wonder just why Putin is risking so much for a war that didn't need to happen.
Of course, things are very fluid on the ground and could change very quickly.
There's
little hope that Monday's talks will yield a deescalation, and no one
expects this war to end in the immediate future -- either by force or by
agreement. But it's likely that Putin, having come this far, will throw
more at Ukraine in the coming days.
However,
as the invasion enters its second week, it's impossible to ignore the
fact that Putin's best-laid plans have been met with firmer resistance
than he -- and many of his opponents -- ever imagined.
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