Barring a 'miracle,' California snowpack will end the season below average
(CNN)Winter is California's wet season, but a discouraging snow survey performed on Tuesday, along with an ominous (lack of) precipitation record set in Sacramento, shows that California reservoirs will likely not fill up again this year.
"With
below-average precipitation and snow up until this point, our team's
latest statewide snow melt forecast are only about 66% of average," said
Sean de Guzman, manager of the Snow Surveys & Water Supply
Forecasting Program with the California Department of Water Resources
(DWR).
"That's
not enough to fill up our reservoirs and without any significant storms
on the horizon, it's safe to say that we will end this year dry and
continue on into the third year of this drought."
Snowfall
in the Sierra Nevadas is imperative to replenishing the state's water
supply. The DWR surveys the mountains for snow periodically during the
winter months in order to better predict water levels later in the year.
Tuesday, the third survey of the winter was conducted on the Phillips
Station snow course in the Sierra Nevadas.
"The
winter season is California's wet season, when we count on storms from
the tropical Pacific to bring precipitation to pack mountains with snow,
and fill rivers, streams, reservoirs and soils with badly needed
water," said Justin Mankin, an Assistant Professor of Geography at
Dartmouth College.
After a great start to the winter season, de Guzman -- standing in a
field of snow with blue skies -- said, "The majority of the snow pack
that we are standing on right here today is basically the same snow that
fell during December. There hasn't been much that has fallen ever
since."
And they are not expecting to see much more.
"Barring
any unforeseen miracle March, which we don't actually see coming, we
will end this year below average," de Guzman added.
Most
of California's major reservoirs are below average. Statewide reservoir
storage stands at about 73% of average. Lake Oroville is only 47% full
and Lake Shasta, the largest reservoir in the state, is 37% full.
"This
past January and February were actually the driest, consecutive January
and February on record dating back over 100 years in the Sierra
Nevada," de Guzman said.
It
isn't just the lack of snowfall in the mountains that is setting
records this winter. The lack of precipitation in one of California's
major cities is expected to set a dismal rain record Tuesday.
A record winter dry spell
With
no precipitation Tuesday, Sacramento will break the record for the
longest dry stretch during the wet season -- going a whopping 53 days
without rain.
Monday,
Sacramento tied the record for most consecutive days without rain in
the wet season and is looking to blow past the 52-day record, according
to the National Weather Service Sacramento.
This
dry spell came as a shock after a wet start to the water year, which
starts October 1. Sacramento saw an impressive 14.37 inches of
precipitation from October to December, which is more than double the
average of around six inches for this period. This was followed by only
0.05 of an inch of precipitation in January and only trace amounts in
February.
Dry conditions are not unusual for many areas in California; however the timing of these dry conditions is.
"We
aren't getting the amount of rain that we would normally get this time
of year. January and February are two of our wettest months of the year,
so when we are so dry it's not great for our numbers," Hannah
Chandler-Cooley, NWS Sacramento meteorologist, told CNN.
There is, however, rain on the horizon for Northern California.
Later
this week, Sacramento is forecast to receive the most rain they've seen
all year. Around a quarter to a half of an inch of rain is forecast,
ending the almost two-month long dry spell.
But this won't be nearly enough to significantly aid the water reserves.
"It
is not a lot of rain for this time of year, especially considering how
dry we've been the last couple of months," said Chandler-Cooley. "At
this point, anything helps. But in terms of the overall water storage,
this won't have much of an impact."
Lack of rain and snow has left California high and dry
This
dry period is just one event within a multiyear drought that
contributes to the even longer multidecade megadrought in the area.
"You
can think of the current drought as an expression of the longer term
megadrought that is unfolding across the American Southwest," Mankin
says.
Stepping back to look at the big picture is important in cases such as these.
"Just
like we can have floods in the midst of a drought — a single storm
missed does not make a drought like this; a single storm caught does not
break a drought like this -- we can have multiple wet and dry periods
in the context of a much longer dry period," Mankin added.
Climate change has played a large role in more than two decades of drought.
"Recent work has suggested that the global warming
that has occurred to date has made the drought over the last year about
20% worse than it otherwise would have been," Mankin said.
The
most dire consequence of below-average precipitation, especially in the
context of a multiyear drought, is that there is less water for
everything. Ecosystems, households industries, and agriculture may all
suffer from lack of water, Mankin emphasized.
The
lack of precipitation in this region has and will continue to lead to
devastating impacts on the environment and people who live there, such
as the water restrictions placed on the Colorado River for first time.
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