Europe is making once-unimaginable decisions to counter Putin's aggression
Whatever the ultimate outcome of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has succeeded in one thing: the security map of Europe has been fundamentally altered and things will never return to the way they were before.
Across the continent, and most notably within the European Union,
decisions have been taken that would have been unthinkable just a few
weeks ago. In the space of a few days, Brussels went further in its
quest to become a geopolitical power in its own right than it had in
decades.
The shock of war returning to the continent has unified the EU's 27 member states,
as the bloc approved not only the strongest package of sanctions it has
ever imposed, but also agreed to buy and supply weapons to the
Ukrainians.
Historically,
the bloc has been divided over exactly how much central control
Brussels should have over foreign policy. This has stood in the way of
the EU's lofty global ambitions, as policy proposals were watered down
in negotiations or simply vetoed. And according to research by the UK House of Parliament,
the vast majority of EU member states that are also members of NATO
have not hit their 2% defense spending target for well over a decade.
"The
crisis in Ukraine has shattered the illusion that security and
stability in Europe comes for free," one senior European diplomat told
CNN. "When there was no real threat, geopolitics seemed remote. Now
there is a war on our border. Now we know we have to pay up and act
together."
It
isn't just Putin's aggression that has woken Europe from its slumber.
The diplomat explained that in conversations with counterparts,
officials had taken note of the lead that US President Joe Biden has
taken in coordinating the West's response.
"A
big fear in European capitals: what would have happened if Biden wasn't
in the White House at the moment? No one seriously believes that Trump
would have handled this well and we may have him or someone like him
back in a couple of years. Effectively, that means we have to assume we
are alone," the diplomat added.
Perhaps
the most significant and symbolic shift in the past few days came from
Germany. The EU's wealthiest and arguably most powerful member state
announced it will more than double its defense spending, with its 2022
military budget expected to stand at $100 billion.
Not
long ago, most German politicians -- and a number of politicians across
Europe -- were uncomfortable with the idea of the country having a
large military presence for obvious historical reasons.
Again, the situation in Ukraine has changed everything.
"Based
on the conversations of the last few days, most European leaders now
seem comfortable with a massive German army if its anchored firmly
within the EU," the diplomat says, pointing out that only a few months
ago even putting the words EU and army in the same sentence would spark
outrage in most of Europe's capitals.
A
cynic might think that Europe's unity and decisiveness has only come
about because of a unique crisis and once-in-a-generation threat to the
continent's security.
However,
multiple European and NATO officials told CNN that there is no outcome
in which Europe can simply go back to how things were.
If Ukraine does fall, then a belligerent Russia will have hugely expanded its land border with the European Union.
But
were it to hold firm and force Russian troops out, then a wounded and
unpredictable Putin sits and broods in the Kremlin. And as former White
House adviser on Russia, Fiona Hill, told Politico this week, when asked
if she thought Putin would use his nuclear weapons, in her assessment, "Yes, he would."
A
senior Brussels official told CNN that even now, its member states are
finding Russian influence too close for comfort. "Finland shares a huge
land border with Russia. Romanian fleets share the Black Sea with the
Russian navy. After months of people saying he wouldn't go into Ukraine,
he did. This is a genuinely very scary situation."
The
official explained that over the course of the past week, "decisions
that would have taken years took a matter of days because Europe has
been changed forever. We simply don't have time for inaction and
complacency any more."
Another
notable shift that has taken place behind the scenes in Brussels is the
attitude of the EU's so-called "neutral nations" (Austria, Ireland,
Finland and Sweden). These are countries that consider themselves to be
militarily non-allied, even if they are politically allied with the EU
and its global allies.
"I
think we now understand that making a point of being neutral and not a
part of NATO doesn't mean you are safe," a senior EU adviser in foreign
affairs told CNN.
One
of the main reasons that the Western response, especially in Europe,
has been so unusually coordinated is that the EU and NATO have operated
unexpectedly well. Officials in both institutions said this is because
for the first time that many of them could remember, both institutions
stuck to their competences and worked in lockstep.
Brussels
has resisted using the crisis to call for an EU army, something which
has led to bitter arguments among the member states historically. Some
believed it would undermine NATO and make Europe less safe, while others
suspected that those most in favor would use it to drive a particular
vision of Europe as a federal state.
A
government official from one of the EU's neutral member states said
that most people now accept that there would be no "additional advantage
to an EU army. Our strongest weapon is economic sanctions, whereas NATO
can do the political and military strategy."
They
added that the "important thing for now is ensuring that the
relationship between the EU and NATO continues to work well" in the
following months, calling the combined response to the Ukraine crisis a
"blueprint" for the future.
Europe's
thinking on defense, security and foreign affairs has evolved light
years in the matter of a few days. It is now waking up from a
decades-long dream that the stability provided by an interconnected
world would prevent war breaking out and that, should the worst happen,
America would sort it out.
There
are many painful months ahead, no matter how this crisis ends. And if
Europe is to emerge from them stronger and safer, then it needs to build
on the progress made in the past few weeks.
If
it fails to do so and returns to the wishful thinking of the past, then
it might find the next crisis to befall the continent cannot be fixed
by quickly putting together sanctions and throwing money at a third
party as it has with Ukraine. And especially so, if that crisis happens
within the bloc's own borders.
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